Speaking at an event hosted by the non-profit Asia Society in New York on September 28, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar made some startling comments that made headlines in India and beyond. “We are already looking at major significant fertiliser shortages,” he said, adding, “We are today looking at a situation where some of the major grain exporters will not be able to send out their shipments, particularly out to the Black Sea.”Jaishankar’s concluding remark was stark: “There’s going to be a major food crisis in the coming months.” It was also reported that the minister met United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres the following day, to urge the body to act to mitigate the impacts of the conflict in West Asia and Russia-Ukraine on Global South economies.While not India-specific, Jaishankar’s statement is the first significant admission of the problem by a major officeholder in the Indian government since Prime Minister Narendra Modi issued a seven-point austerity appeal to Indian citizens back in May, asking them to conserve fuel, reduce foreign exchange spending, and manage the economic fallout of the West Asian energy crisis.While India’s energy-related challenges have been the subject of much heated discussion, fertilisers – a similarly critical aspect given its direct impact on food security – has received less attention. The official numbers suggest no cause for concern. As India enters the rabi planting season, fertiliser inventories are estimated to be at a comfortable 17.01 million tonnes, nearly 38% more than the stocks at the same time last year.This initial stock is adequate to cover half the demand for the rabi season, which totals 38 million tonnes. Official data shows key fertiliser stocks are all at excess levels compared to last year – urea (54% over last year), Diammonium phosphate or DAP (9%) and NPKS (36%).As for food production itself, the government has set its target for the 2026-27 crop year at 373 million tonnes of foodgrains, which is slightly lower (2.63 million tonnes less) than last year’s harvest. This is mainly owing to the threat of the El Niño, which is expected to intensify in the next few months, alongside concerns over drought conditions in Karnataka, Maharashtra, parts of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Rajasthan.Also read: Now is an Opportune Time to Promote Alternate FertilisersThe government has repeatedly assured the public that the fertiliser situation was under control. A July 21 statement by the Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilisers said that the Indian government has “reaffirmed its commitment to ensuring the timely and adequate availability of fertilisers across the country through advance planning, robust domestic production, and strategic import arrangements with partner countries.”Official claims apart, all may not be well with India’s fertiliser supply. Recent reports indicate that the price of sulphur, a key raw material used in the production of DAP and other commonly used fertilisers, has doubled from the start of the year to reach up to between $1,100 per ton. Rising sulphur costs increase production expenses for DAP, SSP and complex fertilisers.The oil-fertiliser-food nexusWhether it is ammonia for nitrogen-based fertilisers, or sulphur for phosphate-based fertilisers, petrochemicals provide the bulk of the feedstock for fertiliser production. The recent price hikes therefore are a direct outcome of the wars in West Asia and in Russia, both global petrochemical hubs which have endured widespread destruction of energy infrastructure. The damage to petrochemical facilities therefore translates to more than an energy shock, but a fertiliser-and-food shock as well.Be it Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City, the world’s largest Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) hub, Iran’s South Pars Gas Field or the UAE’s Shah & Habshan Facilities, the infrastructure damage itself is extensive, and has taken place in almost every major oil producing nation in West Asia. Meanwhile, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted nearly a third of global fertiliser trade, 20% of traded LNG, and 50% of the global sulphur trade.Making matters worse is the war between Ukraine and Russia, which is among the world’s largest exporters of potash, urea, and phosphate fertilisers, apart from being one of the world’s leading suppliers of natural gas, the principal feedstock for nitrogen fertilisers.The Ukrainian military struck several major Russian energy facilities, including four of Russia’s 10 largest oil refineries in the month of August alone. Moscow has now tightened pre-existing export controls on petroleum products and fertilisers to preserve supplies for its own domestic use, even though it remains one of the world’s largest suppliers of crude oil, contributing over 40% of India’s crude imports.Early warningsAn early alarm on fertiliser shortage in India was sounded in May this year by the Karnataka Agriculture Minister N. Chaluvarayaswamy, who revealed that the state was short of 38,000 tonnes of fertiliser, which he attributed to the conflict in West Asia. Later that month, the state witnessed its first protests over the issue when farmer organisations came on to the streets in Belagavi. Severe shortfalls of DAP and Urea continued to be reported from the North Karnataka districts of Belagavi, Yadgir and Raichur, and the southern districts of Kodagu, Hassan, and Kolar.The fertiliser shortage in Karnataka has since changed from an agricultural supply-chain problem into a highly charged political slugfest between the ruling Congress and the opposition BJP. The friction centres on a continuous blame game over critical shortages of Urea and DAP during the peak monsoon sowing season.In June, farmers organisations across Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Bihar held protests against a severe shortage of fertilisers. Led by the All India Kisan Mazdoor Morcha (KMM), the protesters also demanded action against black marketing of urea and other essential fertilisers.In recent weeks, the vernacular press has reported several incidents of fertiliser shortage and resulting unrest in states like Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Rajasthan, Odisha and Bihar. While it is not clear whether these incidents are linked to war-related disruptions, they nevertheless warrant close scrutiny of official claims on India’s fertiliser supplies, given the direct consequences it has for India’s food security.A two-pronged crisisIndia meets roughly 73% of its total fertiliser requirement through domestic production, leaving only the remaining 27% dependent on imports. But these numbers hide a crucial aspect – India’s domestic production of fertiliser too is heavily dependent on imports, either for fuel or in terms of raw materials.For example, domestic production of urea, the most commonly used fertiliser in the country, meets nearly 85% of the demand, but relies overwhelmingly on imported natural gas (LNG) and ammonia as raw feedstocks.The closure of the Strait of Hormuz in March cut off India’s LNG supplies and crippled domestic production of fertiliser, leading to a 1.1 million tonne increase in India’s nitrogen fertiliser imports in the first half of 2026, a 52% increase compared to 2025. Since then, India has actively sought out alternative suppliers in countries such as China, Egypt, and Vietnam.Also read: Gulf Strikes Disrupt Fertiliser Supply Chains, Forcing India to Ration Gas Before Kharif SowingFertiliser is a politically charged issue in India. It is crucial for food security and for maintaining India’s status as one of the world’s leading food producers. It is therefore one of the most subsidised goods in the country. For example, Indian farmers pay a fixed price (MRP) of Rs 242 for a 45 kg bag of urea. This was less than one-tenth the price the government paid for the same quantity in an April procurement tender.The ongoing supply disruptions are therefore exerting severe pressure on the treasury as the government tries to play it safe by shielding India’s majority rural population from the impact of global fertiliser disruptions. The Union Budget had allocated Rs 1.71 lakh crore for fertiliser subsidies for the 2026–27 fiscal year, but by June, the Department of Fertilisers requested a 100% increase (making the total subsidy burden roughly Rs 3.4 lakh crore) as the disruptions escalated.In his recent presentation to agriculture ministers (Union and states) during the annual rabi conference, Fertiliser Secretary Rajat Kumar Mishra said that the global hike in fertiliser prices had massively driven up the per-bag subsidy burden from the pre-war period (before February 28, 2026). Subsidies per bag of urea had surged by 106% and DAP by 61%, he said, adding that the fertiliser subsidy for the current fiscal year was likely to be a minimum of Rs 3 lakh crore, and possibly more, depending on global prices.Clearly, the more urgent crisis when it comes to India’s fertiliser situation may not be to do with supplies, but in its economics. Especially when you add the above numbers to the massive subsidies the government have been ploughing into the oil marketing companies to keep fuel prices low. The fiscal strain is so huge that it is unlikely that the government can bear it indefinitely, given continuing price volatility in global markets.The global pictureWhat makes this precarious situation truly alarming is that the conflicts in West Asia and Russia that are driving the fuel and fertiliser crisis are escalating rather than easing. As of September, Saudi Arabia, one of the world’s leading energy producers, too has been drawn into the conflict militarily.On September 11, drone attacks originating in Iraq targeted Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline (its principal Hormuz bypass, carrying up to 5 million barrels per day, constituting 4–5% of global oil supply). Around the same time, Yemen’s Houthi forces seized effective control of Yemen’s Bab al-Mandeb Strait on the Red Sea, through which approx. 10–12% of global trade passes.Saudi Arabia is the largest supplier of DAP to India, supplying about 30% of the country’s DAP needs (3.1 million tonnes of overall 10–11 million tonnes). These latest attacks served as a fresh reminder of the vulnerability of the Gulf’s energy infrastructure, which India continues to depend heavily on for its fuel and fertiliser needs.Meanwhile, Ukraine launched its largest-ever drone and missile attack on Moscow and the surrounding region on September 20, 2026, coinciding with the final day of Russia’s parliamentary elections. Russian military officials stated that more than 1,900 total projectiles – including drones, missiles, and guided bombs – were intercepted nationwide, which included 450 drones that targeted the capital Moscow.These major attacks on the world’s leading oil, gas and fertiliser producing nations starkly illustrate a geopolitically uncertain future, with no ready respite. The implication is that India may very well be staring at a twin crisis – a fiscal crisis for the government resulting from the skyrocketing subsidy bill on fuel and fertilisers, and quite possibly a fuel-and-fertiliser supply crisis on the ground, too.Sajai Jose is a freelance journalist based in Kerala.