Viksit Bharat @2047 is the government’s vision to make India a developed nation by 2047, the 100th year of independence. It is an ambition every Indian would like to see achieved, perhaps even earlier.Niti Aayog released a paper titled ‘Vision for Viksit Bharat@2047: An Approach Paper’ in July 2024. It encompasses various aspects of development, including economic growth, social progress, environmental sustainability and good governance, which would ensure prosperity for every section of society.The paper envisages that India needs to strive to become a US $30 trillion economy by 2047 with a per capita income of $18,000 per annum and to achieve this target, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would have to grow 9 times from $3.36 trillion (at that time) and the per capita income would need to rise 8 times from $2,392 per annum.It is apparent that while assessing the per capita income and total size of the economy by 2047, the approach paper recognises the dynamic nature of World Bank’s definition of high-income countries (i.e. those having a per capita income of more than $14,005 in 2023). The population growth in the country up to 2047 would also be an important factor.A caveat is warranted here. Income being only one of the parameters for being categorised as a developed nation, achieving $18,000 per capita may make us only a high-income nation, not necessarily a developed one. A developed nation has much more wide-ranging connotations, which necessitate a multi-dimensional achievement of human development, such as life expectancy, fertility/mortality rates, literacy rates, etc.Here we examine the economic aspects of achieving the target of per capita income of $18,000.Firstly, the growth trajectory would have to be much faster than estimated. For instance, the 2023-24 Gross National Income (GNI) of Rs. 297.11 lakh crore, converted to USD at the financial year average exchange rate of Rs. 82.79, puts our economy at $3.59 trillion and per capita income at $2,572. In contrast, per capita income of the projected 165 crore population in 2047 in a $30 trillion economy would be $18,182. This would imply our economy consistently growing at 9.25% annually, in dollar terms, till 2047.This begs the question, whether the same 9.25% domestic growth trajectory in terms of Indian Rupee (INR) would suffice to achieve this high-income level. Obviously, unless the exchange rate remains static, this will not be the case.NITI Aayog’s approach paper appears to be silent on this crucial aspect.The assumptions used for projecting the growth of the economy to 2047 are fraught with uncertainties. To get an idea of the scale of the endeavour, a back-of-the-envelope calculation nonetheless attempted.Expected INR size of $30 trillion economyIn 2023-24, the average value of the dollar against INR increased by 4.66%, 3.44%, and 3.27%, respectively, since 2018-19, 2011-12, and 2004-05. The table below presents three alternative scenarios for the projected dollar value, based on short, medium, and long-term appreciation of the dollar against INR, along with the corresponding annual growth in the country’s GNI needed to achieve a $30 trillion economy by 2047.Hence, even at the lowest rate of change due to depreciation of the Indian rupee, the dollar is expected to be equivalent to INR 179.21 in 2047. From its level of 2024-25 (latest available), the country’s GNI needed to achieve $ 30 trillion level will therefore have to grow by more than 16 times in the domestic currency. It would mean that the economy should grow by almost 13% annually in nominal terms and 9% in real terms, even if we assume that the average rate of inflation will remain 4% per annum.It is also possible that due to geopolitical changes, the dollar may lose its domination as a reserve currency over the next decades than projected here. In that case, the projections would of course change to that extent.The ambitious nature of the target for 2047 can be better appreciated in the backdrop of the fact that since the 1980s, 8.5% or higher real GDP growth could be achieved in only 4 years, namely 1988-89, 1999-2000, 2010-11 and 2021-22; the last being on a base of negative growth during the preceding (Covid-19) year.Furthermore, in 2024, the Reserve Bank projected that over time, India would witness a rise in the efficiency of capital and its incremental capital-output ratio, which had been around 4.3 for the last three years, would be reduced to around 3-4 in the coming years. Commensurately higher capital investment would thus be a prerequisite for pushing the country’s economic growth upwards. Niti’s approach paper has not explored the sources of this additional investment.The quantum of growth required consistently for the next quarter century, should be a reason for urgency in respect of the necessary structural realignment of economic policies. An increase in the growth trajectory will also require attracting much higher investments for which the States also have to introduce serious reforms.To achieve the target of Viksit Bharat by 2027, the human development aspect will also require urgent attention, as economic development can come only if Human Resources are ready for that.Sanjay Kumar and NK Sharma retired as Additional Director General and Director General, respectively, from the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation. Siraj Hussain is a former Union Agriculture Secretary. Views are personal.This piece was first published on The India Cable – a premium newsletter from The Wire – and has been updated and republished here. 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