New Delhi: Contrary to the Union government’s premature claims of becoming the fourth largest economy in the world last year – based on a misreading of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) data – the IMF has placed India on the sixth position in its latest rankings released in April 2026.IMF projections released in May 2025 indicated that India was poised to overtake Japan as the fourth largest economy in 2025-26. At the time, India’s GDP was estimated to be at about $3.9 trillion, while that of Japan was around $4 trillion.IMF’s latest data shows that instead of rising up in the charts, India has fallen from its ranking at number five, below the UK, which it succeeded in 2021. As per the April global economic outlook of the IMF, India is likely to end 2026-27 with a GDP size of $4.15 trillion, below the UK’s $4.26 trillion. What the government had claimed last year“We are the fourth largest economy as I speak. We are a $4 trillion economy as I speak, and this is not my data. This is IMF data. India today is larger than Japan,” BVR Subrahmanyam, Chief Executive Officer of NITI Aayog, had announced at a public event on May 24, 2025. Days later, speaking at a gathering in Gandhinagar, Prime Minister Narendra Modi claimed, “Today, India has become the world’s fourth-largest economy. It is a matter of pride for all of us that we have now surpassed Japan. Now, the pressure of becoming the third (largest economy) is more than the happiness of becoming the fourth (largest economy). The country is not ready to wait. If someone asks to wait, a slogan comes from behind ‘Modi hai toh mumkin hai.” The small but important caveat that the IMF data were mere projections and not finalised data was repeatedly ignored.In a statement released soon after, the Union government said, “India, the world’s fourth-largest economy, has emerged as the fastest-growing major economy and is on track to become the world’s third-largest economy with a projected GDP of $7.3 trillion by 2030.”Crediting Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s vision of Aatmanirbhar Bharat and “strategic initiatives like the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes” the government said, “India’s economic growth under Prime Minister Narendra Modi is not just about building momentum, it is about reshaping the nation’s economic destiny.”In August, the government went on to claim that it was on track to becoming the third largest economy by 2030. “Currently the world’s fourth-largest economy, India is on track to become the third-largest by 2030 with a projected $7.3 trillion GDP. This momentum is powered by decisive governance, visionary reforms, and active global engagement,” the statement said.“The robustness of India’s economy was evident in 2025, when it became world’s fourth-largest,” the government had said in another statement released in December 2025.Among the coterie of ministers and government officials who had toed the official line was former Union sports Minister Anurag Thakur. “Due to the unprecedented reforms and effective economic policies implemented by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the last 11 years, India has consistently remained one of the fastest-growing major economies, and these reforms have made India the world’s fourth-largest economy,” the minister was quoted as saying by Outlook Business.What really happenedFar from being the fourth largest economy or being on track to becoming the third largest, the IMF’s latest data now projects India to rank number four only in 2028. Rupee’s downfall against the US dollar is among the reasons for India’s shrinking GDP.Further, the IMF projections are based on government data, which often has errors. By extension, the IMF data too is likely to contain these errors as it is not a data gathering agency.The latest government GDP estimates released in February show that the nominal GDP of the country has declined from the Rs 357 lakh crore in the old series to Rs 345.5 lakh crore in the new series.Meanwhile, Japan has maintained its position on number four at $4.38 trillion, ranking behind Germany ($5.45 trillion), China ($20.85 trillion) and the US ($32.3 trillion).It must also be noted that while India may overtake Japan as the fourth largest in the future, the per capita income between the countries still has a vast gap to cover. Japan has a per capita income of $33,900. While India, with a much larger population of 1.46 billion people, has a per capita income of $2,880.In the Indian context, equitable growth and the reduction of vast income disparities are far more important metrics than the size of the economy.