The Economic Survey 2025-26 begins by recognising that global policy is increasingly shaped by security and political considerations rather than efficiency or multilateral rules. It acknowledges that geopolitical conflict has intensified, energy and finance have been weaponised, technology is controlled by exports, and free trade is not ‘free’. Yet when it comes to navigating the domestic front with the same honesty, it deviates.The survey makers take due cognisance of geopolitical happenings around the world and distil them in their elaborate notes. Sample this, “Across regions, the resurgence of ultra-nationalism, rooted in claims of cultural superiority and an anti-immigrant stance, is increasingly shaping political and policy choices. This shift is narrowing the space for multilateral cooperation and rule-based trading, while hardening domestic borders and constraining labour mobility. Overall, this has reoriented economic strategies toward inward-looking priorities.”Can the domestic economy continue to be doing well despite these adverse global challenges? One would expect a bit of a sincere stance while taking stock of the Indian economy too. But that doesn’t happen – leaving the Economic Survey in a less than trustworthy position.Taking GDP growth numbers from the First Advance Estimates for FY26 released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, the Economic Survey asserts India’s real GDP growth rate to be 7.4% for FY26. It claims domestic demand has continued to anchor growth, supported by capital formation. On the supply side, it says, manufacturing activity has gained traction, while services drive expansion. Trade, transport and financial and professional services are showing steady performance.Source: Economic Survey 2025-26Source: Economic Survey 2025-26If you look closely, the numbers in sectors such as mining, manufacturing, electricity, gas and other utility services along with construction are not changing much. And these are estimates at best, bound to change as the global pressures of tariffs, impacts of ‘deals’ as the one with the European Union play out. As part of the deal with the EU, India has allowed tariff cuts in certain agricultural products, such as processed foods, vegetable oils and fruits. Similarly, there are concessions given to automobiles, machinery, chemicals and certain electronics. Obviously, this is going to impact the production of several items in our manufacturing industry. It is the service sector that emerges as the true driver of the Indian economy. Services exports have touched a record $387.5 billion, growing 13.6% year-on-year in 2025-26.The survey is trying its best to prove that manufacturing is ‘gaining traction’ and to prove that, it talks about Gross Value Added by the manufacturing sector. On constant price terms, share of manufacturing has remained steady at around 17-18%. It is expected to grow at 6.2% in FY26 compared to FY25. However, the Economic Survey also claims that the ‘compression’ in gross value added by manufacturing in the GDP is not due to a decline of manufacturing activities but due to relative price effects. So, does that mean, our manufacturing output is low, despite overall manufacturing activities going steady? Or the quality of our products is low? Or are we simply producing cheap goods?Source: Economic SurveyIn chapter 16.1, where the survey talks about India being strategically indispensable, it asserts ‘Swadeshi is inevitable and necessary.’ Yet it is cautious about import substitution. It advocates scaling manufacturing, to create supplier ecosystems, absorb large workforces and generate durable trade surpluses; a track similar to late-industrialising economies like South Korea, Mexico and Turkey. It remains to be seen what exact policies the budget will entail to provide the promised momentum to the manufacturing sector.Inflation ‘tamed and anchored’?A major concern of most people over the past few years has been inflation. How does inflation rise in lived experience yet go down in official figures? The Economic Survey notes “a marked easing of inflation, which has improved real purchasing power and supported consumption”. If that’s not really the case with you, look at the difference between headline and core inflation. Headline CPI inflation (which includes vegetables, pulses, fuel and other goods and is more volatile) declined to 1.7%. This is because it is seasonal and cools down in favourable periods. While core inflation (excluding vegetables, fuel) has been persistent and expected to be about 4.3%. And that’s why your rent, cost of construction, raw materials and cost of healthcare has gone up.Source: Economic SurveyEmployment and skill development: jargon up, jobs downThe Survey pats the back of the government on the employment front. It lauds the government’s various schemes such as its skill development initiatives, E-Shram portal, and even the four labour codes without delving into any criticality. It says, “The recently enacted Labour Codes aim to strike a balance between flexibility and workers’ rights, focusing on ensuring industry competitiveness while promoting worker welfare.”At a time when the four labour codes have been thoroughly criticised for not being able to provide worker security while giving greater flexibility to the employers, the survey just packs them as the best reform possible to raise labour force participation and employment growth across industry and services. Just a few days ago, we saw a massive march by over 50,000 farmers and tribal workers to the Palghar district headquarters to demand land rights and enforcement of the Forest Rights Act, and to protest against new labour regulations and changes to the MGNREGA. Curiously, MGNREGA is absent from the chapter on employment. It finds a mention in the next chapter: Rural Development and Social Progress, only to be told it has ‘reached its limits’ and makes way for VB – G RAM G Act, 2025, hailed as a comprehensive statutory overhaul of MGNREGA.There are claims of balancing regulation and flexibility in light of the gig economy. The survey states, “There is a growing focus on expanding social security, income protection, and grievance redressal mechanisms for gig and platform workers to safeguard their well-being.” The focus is on bridging the gap between formal and informal employment, but in essence the formal part comes from ‘documentation’ alone. Once again, the ‘benefits’ of the Labour Codes are explained. How appointment letters, fixed term employment contracts, single pan-India registration etc. will solve the issues of job security and paltry wages, no one knows.There is increased talk of bringing workers into digital systems prepared by the government. In fact there seem to be plans of using the UAN ID (used in the EPFO system) to ‘measure’ and ‘track’ employment; initially of the trainees, and people newly brought into the system. But these can have serious ramifications on employment of others too.If you are worried about AI taking away your job, the Economic Survey has new employment suggestions for you. You could try your hand at baking, or go into environmental restoration. Try AI-disruption-proof fields that involve empathy, emotional intelligence, dexterity instead of technological advancements. Be prepared to hear more in this regard in the budget speech.Ultimately, the Economic Survey stresses that all is well. It is unusually assured of the stability of the domestic economy, despite outlining the many geopolitical challenges and their impacts.Kavita Kabeer is a writer and a satirist, currently helming the show ‘Cracknomics’ for The Wire.