The dictionary defines ‘mystery’ as something ‘one cannot understand or explain’.The Modi government’s Economic Survey for 2025-26 and the budget statement for 2026-27 create both mystery and a heavy dose of mystique.Mystique because the government claims the budget is really a ‘vision document’ for Viksit Bharat 2047. This implies one need not look for anything substantive in the short to medium term. Indeed there is a certain mystique about Viksit Bharat 2047, which is thrown at ordinary mortals whenever they ask simple questions like what the budget does to create more jobs, income and productivity in the economy.There is also a deep mystery about what exactly is currently happening in the economy. Well-known economist and Nobel laureate Abhijit Banerjee has said India is increasingly becoming a “mystery” to the rest of the world. Banerjee asserts this “mystery” is largely a result of the sharp polarisation in the polity accompanied by a lack of transparency in institutions and waning media freedoms. The growing lack of trust and transparency in regard to data integrity is part of this, he suggests. He feels it is possible that global investors are shying away from India because they increasingly view her as a “mystery”.One would be tempted to assess both the Economic Survey and the budget document in this broad context. The Economic Survey in fact precisely proves Banerjee’s point. The survey says it is inexplicable why foreign investors are shying away from India when India’s GDP is growing at around 7% and other macro indicators are ‘healthy’. This warrants closer examination, the survey says.The survey also raises the question of why the rupee is the most underperforming currency when India’s economy is doing alright.Global investors may be viewing India as a bit of a “mystery” because the IMF has cast doubts on the government’s GDP-calculating methodology. There is consensus among credible economists that India’s real GDP growth may be two to three percentage points lower than claimed. This “mystery” remains unresolved.Banerjee says the headline GDP number possibly hides a lot of economic stress in society, especially amongst the bottom 80% of the population. Expert observers see this anecdotally but official statistics remain sanguine. It is precisely because there is weak demand from this large section that the overall consumption growth has been weak for many years and consequently private investment growth is also tepid for a decade now. The RBI has said India’s household savings are at a multi-decade low, which is another source of stress in the economy. How have we reached this place? It remains a mystery!The budget does not even pretend to grapple with these unknowables and is happy to peddle its Viksit Bharat 2047 vision as an end in itself.Also what use is a budget exercise when much of the earmarked expenditure is not spent? Former finance minister P. Chidambaram said cuts in revenue expenditure in 2025-26 have disproportionately hit sectors affecting ordinary citizens, including rural development (Rs 53,067 crore), urban development (Rs 39,573 crore), social welfare (Rs 9,999 crore), agriculture (Rs 6,985 crore), education (Rs 6,701 crore) and health (Rs 3,686 crore). Total expenditure cuts exceed Rs 1 lakh crore for 2025-26. This makes the budget exercise meaningless at some level.The expenditure cuts were forced because revenue growth is much less than budgeted. The question then to ask is why revenues are not growing when the economy is growing at 7%. Well, maybe the economy is growing at much less than 7% as some reputed economists argue. The most telling dataset has been offered by economist Rathin Roy, who was a member of the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council before 2019.Rathin Roy has argued in the Economic Times that both the government’s overall revenue and expenditure have stagnated as a ratio of GDP since FY2017. The Union government’s revenues were about 9.5% in 2016-17 and remain more or less the same in 2026-27 (BE). Its expenditure was about 12.7% of GDP in 2016-17 and it went up to 17% of GDP during the Covid years but is back to about 13% of GDP in 2026-27 (BE).Roy makes the point that both revenue and expenditure have been stagnant and not shown any dynamism for ten years since 2016. Logically it must follow that this lack of dynamism is deriving from a less than dynamic growth in the economy. It seems the common citizens will have to make do with Viksit Bharat 2047.This piece was first published on The India Cable – a premium newsletter from The Wire – and has been updated and republished here. To subscribe to The India Cable, click here.