Once the accounting exercises are concluded, the platitudes repeated and campaign slogans masterfully plugged in, we must judge the Union budget on whether it promises to bring any positive change in people’s lives. Keeping in mind the government’s track record, the answer is a resounding no.For the household sector, this is a budget that is heavy on credit and low on income growth.Since last year, measures such as the enhanced limits under the Kisan Credit Card and PM SVANidhi schemes focus primarily on facilitating loans rather than addressing the more fundamental issue of income generation. This approach risks deepening the debt burden of an already over-leveraged population.Fifty-two percent of agricultural households are indebted, with the incidence of debt likely highest among small and marginal farmers. Yet the budget offers very few concrete measures to raise real incomes; instead, it largely equates economic relief with the ability to borrow more.Budgets for the PM KISAN and crop insurance schemes have been kept stagnant, despite inflation. Urea and nutrient-based subsidies have been reduced, which will result in increased cost of production for farmers.Considerable emphasis has been placed on promoting agricultural output. However, translating this intent into reality will be extremely difficult. Many state governments – particularly those run by the BJP – have cornered themselves through pre-election promises, such as procuring paddy at the minimum support price. Once in power, these governments often realise that they lack either the fiscal capacity or the political will to honour such commitments.Under such circumstances, farmers have little incentive to increase production, since higher output only means higher costs with minimal assurance of even recovering their investments.The announcement last year of an extension of the Jal Jeevan Mission (JJM) to 2028 is another example of inadequate accountability. In the last budget, the JJM was allotted Rs 67,000 crore, which was later revised downward to Rs 17,000 crore. Why did the government not spend the money? No explanation was offered as to why the scheme could not be completed within its original timeframe.While the mission was commendable in intent and innovative in design, its execution has been deeply flawed.There is nothing concrete for education and healthcare. Last year’s announcement of adding 75,000 seats to medical colleges also appears encouraging at first glance, but the expansion is largely meaningless unless accompanied by parallel investments in high-quality infrastructure and, more importantly, well-qualified teaching faculty.Medical education cannot be strengthened without making careers as medical teachers, specialist physicians and surgeons genuinely attractive. This requires substantial financial commitment and improved service conditions, neither of which find mention in the budget.Finally, the repeated invocation of ‘Make in India’ and the array of schemes proposed to boost manufacturing will succeed only if supported by a conducive social climate and stable institutional environment. Unfortunately, the budget speech is silent on these essential preconditions.In sum, the budget reflects a preference for credit-driven solutions over income-based empowerment, offering piecemeal initiatives while sidestepping deeper structural reforms.From every perspective, the budget lacks substance. Let’s take a look at the macro-economic indicators.On paper, the Indian economy is thriving. The first advance estimates peg GDP growth for FY26 at 7.4%. If true, this should translate to lakhs of new jobs and investments. But that has clearly not been the case. In four of the first ten months of 2025, net foreign direct investment was negative, implying that investors withdrew more money and more Indian money was invested abroad. This contributed to the rupee’s depreciation as it now remains firmly ensconced above the 90-mark.The household-level situation remains precarious. By March 2025, there were more than 28 crore borrowers with loans pending, with the average loan amount standing at Rs 4.8 lakh. The average debt amount has increased 40% since March 2021. The salaried class relies on debt to fuel their consumption as rent and essentials take up a significant chunk of incomes.The budget does not address this brewing crisis that is contributing to slowing consumption. Internally it must raise concerns that GST revenue for the next financial year is estimated to be 2.57% lower than in 2025-26. Even accounting for the reduced rates, it does not explain how collections will fall when nominal growth is estimated to be 10%. For 2025-26, the government will be missing its target of income tax collection by Rs 1,09,000 crore, yet it has raised the income tax collection targets to nearly Rs 14 lakh crore.As the yuva shakti would say: the math isn’t mathing.Akash Satyawali and Kulisha Devi are joint secretary and national coordinator of the AICC research department.