The defence pact that Saudi Arabia has signed with Pakistan has created apprehension in India about its implications for our security. This is understandable because our minds have been conditioned by the succession of conflicts between our two nations in which Pakistan has used American (and more recently Chinese) military equipment against us. Pakistan’s defence minister Khawaja Asif has added fuel to the fire by asserting, on Pakistan’s Geo TV, that “if either Pakistan or Saudi Arabia is attacked from any quarter it will be considered an attack on both nations and we will respond together.” This has given hawks in both countries, and foreign policy novices, the fuel on which to feed their paranoia.The apprehension that the agreement has created in Indian minds is utterly groundless if not mischievous. The Pak-Saudi defence pact is not aimed at India but at Israel. In essence, it is a guarantee by Pakistan to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states that it will respond to any attack on them by ‘another country’ in a manner that protects their people and their sovereignty. The threat it is intended to avert is not from India but of an Israeli attack on another Arab country similar to its devastating bombing of the Leqtaifiya district of Qatar’s capital Doha.Israel bombed it because it suspected, or had information, that a number of Hamas leaders had taken refuge there. It is this outrageous act — which has come on top of Israel’s genocide in Gaza, its bombing of Syria, Lebanon, and most significantly of Qatar — that has made the Gulf Arab countries decide that they need protection from a nuclear armed state that has gone berserk. India, under Modi, is Israel’s pawn. So the only nuclear power they can turn to is Pakistan.Pakistan is extending a nuclear umbrella over Saudi Arabia not out of ‘Islamic solidarity’. It does not harbour any illusions that, other than giving money and some weapons, Riyadh will help Pakistan militarily in a war against India. Pakistan knows the deep human and economic ties that exist between Saudi Arabia and India because it has exactly the same ties with them.What Islamabad wants in return is a permanent guarantee of financial security that will allow it to stave off a rapidly approaching bankruptcy. In 2023-24, Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves were only 14 billion dollars, and its balance of payments deficit on the current account was 4 billion dollars. It was therefore only three years away from complete bankruptcy. What it hopes to do therefore, is to trade military security for a reliable, continuing, financial bail-out. The idea being floated by hawks, both in Pakistan and India, that the defence pact will automatically bring the Arab nations to Pakistan’s aid in a war with India is therefore self-deception.However, defence treaties, like all others, are based upon reciprocal commitments. So this also means that were Pakistan to get into a war with India, the Saudis would help it. But the most they will do, and that too with extreme reluctance, will be to help finance it. Even this will not go far because none of them would want, directly or indirectly, to be at war with India, because their economy is so heavily dependent upon Indian skilled and semi-skilled labour.Saudi money can at most help Pakistan meet some of its expenses on defence but China is already doing that for entirely different reasons. So Saudi funding will not materially change the balance of power between India and Pakistan.Given Pakistan’s lack of any real democracy and the army’s stranglehold on the country, it is a safe bet that a part of the financial transfers that Pakistan receives will be grabbed by the army. But after their experience of limited war in Operation Sindoor, Pakistan’s army will think twice before provoking India with another Pahalgam-type operation.However, there is also a great deal that India can do to make a war with Pakistan highly unlikely. Pakistan has protested vigorously, accusing India repeatedly of giving financial aid to the Baloch Liberation Front and sundry terrorists. What it has offered as evidence so far is the custodial ‘confession’ by Kulbhushan Jadhav – accused of being an R&AW agent in Balochistan.In a 2020 dossier Pakistan submitted the alleged confession by Jadhav to the UN in which he ‘admitted’ to holding R&AW-directed meetings with Baloch insurgents for sabotage. Pakistan also claims to have bank records, and an audio recording of an Indian transferring funds to a BLA agent, and the confession of a surrendered Baloch Liberation Front commander claiming the organisation receiving Indian financial aid.Confessions by captured agents or insurgents cannot be conclusive evidence of a crime and the international community has rightfully been dismissive of the Pakistani dossier. However, if there is any truth in Pakistan’s allegations, this would be a good time for India to allay its fears, and open the road to a healthy relationship with it, by ending any ongoing assistance to the BLF. What would be still better would be a pact between the governments not to encourage cross-border terrorism of any kind. Our two countries must stop playing infantile games conceived by the Intelligence Services to boost their own importance, games that have killed thousands of civilians and gained nothing for their countries but served to reinforce their own indispensability to their civilian governments.That could become the first stepping stone to lasting peace on the sub-continent. What is more, it is one that Saudi Arabia would strongly endorse. The long term impact of the Pak-Saudi deal could easily, therefore, be the opposite of what the hawks and alarmists in our intelligence agencies and our media are currently feeding upon.Prem Shankar Jha is a veteran journalist and commentator.This piece was first published on The India Cable – a premium newsletter from The Wire – and has been updated and republished here. To subscribe to The India Cable, click here.