The latest India-Pakistan flare-up yielded a predictable pattern. The government had little choice but to respond to a heinous act of terrorism. The country rallied behind the government. But the ruling party could not help itself and politics crept into the national discourse. The media went into a frenzy. And social media erupted in nationalistic fervour. Together, they produce a dangerous illusion – that India, by virtue of its size and military power, can flatten Pakistan in a full-scale war, should it come to that.This is groupthink – where discourse seeks consensus and where slogans replace serious debate. And it is now deeply embedded in India’s public consciousness.What is missing is a basic recognition: war is not a video game. It is not a zero-cost option, as anyone living in Poonch or Uri will tell you. If you listen. Any full-scale military conflict, particularly between nuclear powers, will exact a heavy price – economic, human and strategic. Besides, despite some notable battlefield successes, the conflict did not result in a decisive victory.While we can immerse ourselves in self-congratulation, international observers are less sanguine. “Chinese weapons gave Pakistan a new edge against India,” ran a headline in The Economist. The New York Times ran a story with the headline, “India and Pakistan Talked Big, but Satellite Imagery Shows Limited Damage.” Independent observers have noted the re-hyphenation of India and Pakistan, battlefield successes for both countries, and reversing the clock, from India’s perspective, on Kashmir’s international status. Outside India and Pakistan, the world watched a different story unfold.Yet, there is little serious public conversation about these consequences. Instead, there’s a collective fantasy that we can fight, win, and move on. While headlines trumpet a Rs 50,000 crore defence boost, India’s defence spending as a share of the economy is the lowest since the 1960s.But our collective reverie notwithstanding, the world is changing. And not in ways that make India’s strategic environment less complex.A tough geopolitical landscapeFor decades, Indian strategists viewed Russia as our principal defence partner and counterweight to the West. That time is gone. Russia is now a diminished power – its economy is about half the size of India’s, 11% of China’s and just 7% of the United States economy. It is bogged down in Ukraine, turning to Iran and North Korea for help. China, by contrast, is the world’s number two power, economically and likely militarily. And it is firmly in Pakistan’s corner.China is not just a rival neighbour. It is the top trading partner for 120 countries, according to the Asian Development Bank. It invests hundreds of billions of dollars in research and development. It has pulled ahead in next-generation tech and, according to the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, leads in 37 of 44 critical technologies, including electric batteries, hyper sonics, and advanced radio-frequency communications such as 5G and 6G. It has the manufacturing muscle to shape global supply chains.China is projected to surpass the United States in total economic size or come close by 2035, according to estimates by many economists, including former World Bank Chief Economist Justin Lin. While China will still lag in per capita income, it is expected to transition to high-income status – or stand on the threshold of it – by then. Yes, it faces headwinds. But India should not bet its future on China stumbling.That brings us to the United States. India has made a major push to strengthen ties over the last 2 decades. But this is not yet a full embrace. India is not yet part of a NATO-like alliance, which could guarantee security against Chinese ambitions. And with Trump – again – India cannot count on predictability. Trump’s worldview is transactional. A few weeks back, he threatened to decouple from China. Now, he is pushing for a deal, or maybe not. If Canada and Europe are feeling unsure about American friendship, it is safe to assume Trump won’t go to war for India.This is the strategic triangle India must navigate: a diminished Russia, an assertive China, and an unpredictable America. It’s a tough geopolitical landscape.What are India’s options?First, build a tighter alliance with the West. That’s the easiest to articulate, but the hardest to execute. The West is cautious but also pulling in different directions. India is not a treaty ally. And the US contains a significant constituency, especially Trump’s MAGA base, that is growing more inward-looking.Second, seek peace with China. That is desirable but unlikely – at least on terms India can accept – unless India becomes a stronger economic and military power. China negotiates from strength. They are still sitting on territory they seized in 2020.Which leaves the third, and perhaps only viable path: national transformation. India must become a great power on its own steam. That means doubling down on economic growth, trade, and investment – not just chasing headlines, but building real capacity.To do this, India must get the fundamentals right. Invest in health and education. Bet big on research and technology, slash red tape, decentralise power and empower state and local governments. And make the private sector – not the bureaucracy – the engine of development.None of this will be easy. It requires clarity of vision and consistency of effort. But without it, India will remain trapped –strategically insecure, economically constrained and diplomatically dependent.The real threat to India is not Pakistan. It is not even China. It is complacency at home, dressed up as confidence. We shun hard choices in favour of theatre. It is groupthink, not strategy. And it is time we snapped out of it.Salman Soz is an economist and author. His book Unshackling India (HarperCollins, 2021) was named one of the Best New Books in Economics for 2022 by the Financial Times.This piece was first published on The India Cable – a premium newsletter from The Wire & Galileo Ideas – and has been updated and republished here. To subscribe to The India Cable, click here.