New Delhi: One of China’s better known India specialists, researcher Liu Zongyi from the Shanghai Institute of International Studies, has said in recent times that he believes ties between the two countries will continue to be defined by confrontation and competition in short, medium and possibly long term.Liu’s arguments – made in a speech on January 3 and an interview last month – have been summarised by Thomas Des Garrets Geddes in his newsletter, Sinification.What the relationship is based onCurrently, Liu believes, India’s relationship with China is shaped by two factors – the US and Hindu nationalism. “On the political front, it promotes ‘national reconstruction’ [国族再造] and ‘national [i.e. social] integration’ [国家整合]. This is mainly done through the use of Hindu nationalism, stirring up public sentiment in order to gain votes. This [in turn] has very strong spillover effects. The ‘China threat’ is also a commonly used argument,” the newsletter quotes Liu as having said.While India had some differences with the US’s Indo-Pacific strategy while Donald Trump was in power, that has largely disappeared under Joe Biden, Liu argued: “India’s Indo-Pacific strategy is in line with the US’s core objectives of hedging against the Belt and Road Initiative and keeping China in check. [This is to] prevent the emergence of a so-called ‘China-led’ regional order and achieve a ‘multipolar Asia’ and a ‘multipolar world’.”It is not border issues, but a quest for more regional and global dominance, that now mould India-China relations, Liu said. In fact, border issues have been “instrumentalised” – it is actually “a geopolitical conflict because India is a country that places a lot of emphasis on the idea of spheres of influence”.Meanwhile the Chinese Embassy in India has issued a statement, reacting sharply to comments by visiting US State department official, Donald Lu, where he spoke of “aggressive Chinese moves along India’s border, most recently in India’s North Eastern States.” The Chinese Spokesperson said the comments were without any “factual basis”. Further, the statement said that “the current China-India border situation is overall stable. The two sides have maintained smooth and constructive communication on boundary-related issues through diplomatic and military channels, and promote the border situation to switch from the phase of emergency response to normalized management and control. The boundary question is a matter between China and India. The two sides have the will and capability of resolving the question through dialogue and consultation. We hope the US could do more things that contribute to regional peace and stability.Future prospectsGiven the nature of the two countries’ foreign policies, Liu believes that the conflict and competition between them is here to stay, at least for the foreseeable future:“For the next ten years at least, India will continue to pursue pro-US policies and will continue to adopt a primarily confrontational approach towards China, with cooperation as a secondary priority. Now, there are fewer and fewer areas of cooperation between India and China. India has already become an obstructionist within BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. India will continue to use the US and the West to exert pressure on China and force it to give way on border-related issues.”“Not long ago, Modi took the initiative to shake hands with President Xi during the G20 summit in Bali. I believe this act was motivated by two main considerations: one, [Modi] had his eyes on the 2023 G20 and SCO summits; and two, the current heavy confrontation between both countries along their [disputed] border is, from India’s perspective, using up too many resources. India is hoping to transfer [some of these] resources to the Indian Ocean and obstruct China from there.”