New Delhi: The formation of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government in West Bengal has raised hopes in Dhaka for a breakthrough on the long-stalled Teesta river water-sharing deal. The agreement has been on hold for 14 years, largely due to opposition from former Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, who lost the recent assembly polls. With the deal remaining elusive for over a decade, Bangladesh has moved to implement the Teesta Mega Project, formally known as the “Comprehensive Management and Restoration of Teesta River Project,” with Chinese funding. This geopolitical development may create urgency to move forward for both India and the United States.Additionally, Bangladesh is planning to move ahead with project at a time when the looming expiry of another critical agreement is around the corner. The 30-year Ganges water-sharing treaty, signed in 1966, is set to expire in December 2026. Bangladesh has already begun negotiations with India to either extend or replace the treaty. West Bengal’s consent will be essential here as well, since water is a state subject under the constitution of India.Bangladesh is not waiting on IndiaBangladesh’s Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman, in response to a journalist’s question following the elections in West Bengal, said, “there will be expectations that the agreement reached at that time can be considered in the current context. But we cannot simply sit and wait. We have our own work to do.” Rahman, describing the Teesta water issue as a matter of “life and death” for communities residing along the river, signalled that Bangladesh does not intend to delay the development projects in the region and will move forward with discussions with China.During a three-day visit to China from May 5-9, Rahman formally sought Beijing’s involvement and support in the Teesta project. The two countries reaffirmed their commitment to their comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership, according to a joint press release statement. Earlier, Bangladesh’s interim government had already written to China requesting Tk 67 billion (or Rs. 6,700 crore) in loans for the project.China’s involvement in the projectChinese and Indian interest in the Teesta project has run in parallel for years. During former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s visit to China in July 2024, Beijing expressed readiness to fund the project. At a press conference on July 14, 2024, Hasina acknowledged China’s offer but said that she preferred Indian involvement. “China is ready, but I want India to do it. If India undertakes this project, they will continue to provide whatever is needed for it. That’s the plain truth—no sugarcoating,” said Hasina. The press conference proved historically significant for another reason: it was where Sheikh Hasina made remarks that turned the ongoing anti-quota protests into a nationwide uprising. 22 days later, the government fell, and Hasina fled to India.Former Indian foreign secretary Vinay Kwatra expressed India’s interest in investing in the Teesta project during his visit to Bangladesh in May 2024, under the Awami League government. After the regime change on August 5, 2024, the Muhammad Yunus-led interim government turned to China instead. In a March 2025 visit to China, Yunus held a discussion on the project’s finance.What experts sayFormer Bangladesh ambassador to the United States M. Humayun Kabir told The Wire that Bangladesh was still interested in the Teesta deal, however, the Ganges treaty renewal remains the more immediate priority.“Bangladesh has been prepared to sign the Teesta agreement since 2011, but the deal stalled because of India’s internal political dynamics, ” he said. “If India takes fresh initiative, Bangladesh would welcome it.”Kabir noted that the any renewed movement on the issue depends, in part, on the political developments in West Bengal. It remains unclear whether a political shift in the state would materially alter the position. Electoral considerations in North Bengal, Kabir said, shaped Mamata Banerjee’s original opposition to the deal, a factor which could remain relevant for both the All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) and BJP.Bangladesh and India have already begun discussions on renewing the Ganges treaty and negotiations are expected to be concluded by December this year. When asked whether it was the right time to revive the Teesta issue, considering potential complications in the parallel-running Ganges negotiations, Kabir said, “we have been interested in Teesta since 2011. We were ready to sign then. If it becomes possible tomorrow, Bangladesh would still be prepared to sign.”On Chinese involvement in the Teesta project, Kabir referred to it as a matter of strategic prioritisation, adding that the government will have to decide which issue is more urgent and which appears more readily solvable. Also read: When Rivers Become Ropes: India-Bangladesh Ties and Resisting the Weaponisation of the Ganges Why the deal has been stuck since 2011The Teesta dispute is long-standing. In 1983, India and Bangladesh signed a temporary agreement allocating 39% of Teesta’s water to India and 36% to Bangladesh, with the rest unallocated. However, a permanent agreement was never reached.In 2011, during former Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s visit to Bangladesh, a draft agreement was prepared but was halted at the last minute due to objections from West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee. Although Bangladesh has since raised the issue with India, the issue has not moved forward.What the project actually entailsThe Teesta project’s geopolitically stakes are high. The United States, India and 12 other countries are seeking to bring Bangladesh into the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), while China is simultaneously pushing Dhaka’s alignment with its own strategic interests, including participation in a forum alongside Pakistan.The Teesta project formally launched in 2016 with a feasibility study. Project documents show that the river would be dredged over 102 kms, deepening it by approximately 10 metres to reduce monsoon flooding. Plans also involve the dredging of chars, developing satellite towns on both riverbanks and reclaiming agricultural land by removing sand deposits.