New Delhi: A ‘blue tsunami’ has swept over the US federal legislature. What sort of consequences will the Democrats’ historic gains in the Senate and House – with the party securing control over both chambers – have for India?Though several issues – spanning security and energy to immigration and the Indo-Pacific – stand to be influenced by the shift in the power balance on Capitol Hill, overall the consequences for India are unlikely to be immediate or far-reaching.West Asia crisisIn the months after the US and Israeli governments struck Iran, the crisis that followed in West Asia has turned unpopular and expensive in America. President Donald Trump himself acknowledged the war’s role in effecting the rout that his Republican Party suffered in these midterm elections, with Vice President JD Vance going even further, declaring that the conflict is “the reason” for what transpired at the polls.Now that the Democratic Party has wrested control over the US Congress, its legislators are set to use this newfound strength to increase scrutiny of and restrain Trump’s future moves in the war, with measures.What follows on the war front will depend on how Trump reacts to the increased pressure on him to wind it down. He could respond by stepping up efforts towards a diplomatic end to the conflict. He could also, as some analysts say, seek to instead end it violently or even double down and escalate.The latter scenarios would be bad ones for India. After America and Israel waged their war on Iran early this year, the latter retaliated by virtually closing the Strait of Hormuz – through which about half of India’s crude oil and over 90% of its LPG imports flowed during peacetime – triggering a serious disruption to Indian energy inflows.Any move by Tehran to further hit back by attacking US bases in the Gulf would continue to endanger the lives of the 20 million-strong Indian diaspora in the region. And the conflict – which has now spun off a second axis of fighting in Saudi Arabia and Yemen – has already claimed the lives of 24 Indian civilians, many of them seafarers aboard commercial, non-combatant vessels.That is why, “in the immediate term, India will hope that a Democratic congress can clip the president’s wings and somehow bring a speedy end to the Iran war,” Daniel Markey, an Indo-US relations expert at the Stimson Centre, said.Notably, if indeed Trump pursues talks to end the war, that could see Pakistan assume an even more prominent mediatory role and its diplomatic stock go up further – unlike some Indian analysts’ wager that Islamabad’s prominence in Washington may dim as a result of the blue swell.While there is some anxiety among Pakistani observers that Pakistan’s exuberant praise of Trump, including nominating him for the Nobel Peace Prize, could count against it in Washington’s corridors of powers in the future, they are more sanguine about its spreading role in the Gulf. The Makkah joint defence agreement between Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey is unlikely to unravel, as Gulf countries have seen that the security guarantees from US have not worked – and they have to engage with Iran in some fashion.This also comes against the backdrop of a broader shift within the Democratic Party towards a more restrained and less interventionist conception of America’s global role, particularly when it comes to military engagements overseas. While Democrats are not isolationist, with a majority still favouring an active US role in world affairs, there is growing preference for shared global leadership over American dominance. This could further weaken the appetite in Washington for assuming the role of the Gulf’s primary security guarantor, even as regional countries increasingly look to diversify their security partnerships.Thus, while it remains uncertain how a future Democratic administration might approach Pakistan, Islamabad’s expanded influence in the Gulf, consolidated during Trump’s war with Iran, is likely to prove enduring.Trade dealAnother area on which a Democratic-controlled Congress could put a check is the Trump administration’s aggressive trade policy, which has entailed the imposition of an unprecedented 50% tariff on India – half of it a deterrent against its purchases of Russian oil – and a subsequent decrease on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s purported move to seek a trade deal. The affair has added some of the tensest notes to Indo-US relations seen in the last several years.Talks towards this deal remain incomplete and have stalled after the Supreme Court in DC struck down Trump’s use of emergency powers to levy tariffs. Will increased congressional scrutiny cause the White House to be less aggressive in negotiations towards a pact and potentially hasten its arrival?That is one possibility. But not everyone is convinced it is the more likely outcome. The trade expert Ajay Srivastava for instance suspects that Trump may ratchet up tariff pressure on India in search of a “quick win” that could mitigate the rebuke that voters have delivered to his administration.“The adverse midterm results won’t change Trump’s trade direction because both Democrats and Republicans now favour economic nationalism, domestic manufacturing and strong supply chains,” reckoned Srivastava, who heads the Delhi-based Global Trade Research Initiative. At any rate the president continues to wield a range of executive powers that allow him to bypass Congress, he added in a note.Russian oilTrump also wields the power to impose tariffs of up to 100% on India under the Lindsey Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act in view of its status as a top buyer of Russian crude oil, though for the time being he has waived measures under the legislation. However, the law did receive a measure of bipartisan support, with 58 of 214 House Democrats and 36 of around 45 Democratic senators voting in favour.India has emerged as a major buyer of Russian oil – in fact as the biggest customer of its seaborne variety – after Western countries imposed measures on Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine. It began to diversify its crude purchases after the Trump administration imposed its punitive tariff but started purchasing more Russian crude after the Iran war choked off supplies from West Asia, with Russia’s share of Indian oil imports crossing 50% this June. This share had again dropped to 33.5% by September for various reasons.So, while heightened scrutiny of the Trump administration’s trade policies may rein in some of its more mercurial aspects, the sword of the Lindsey Act still hangs over India’s proverbial neck, as Democrat lawmakers are unlikely to bless Trump’s unilateral measures to give sanctions relief to Russia. New Delhi had responded to the Act’s passage through Congress by saying it would take all measures necessary to protect its economic interests and that it remains committed to a “balanced and mutually beneficial” trade relationship.ImmigrationOne more dimension of ties that has been in focus is the administration’s hardline immigration policy, especially its attempt to impose a $100,000 fee for new H-1B visa applications – the biggest beneficiaries of which are Indian nationals – and its move to suspend employment-based permanent residency filings from a host of tech companies, including the India-based Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys, Wipro, Cognizant and HCL Technologies, in addition to Microsoft.However, even if Congressional scrutiny against such moves increases under a Democrat-controlled legislature, the administration retains considerable executive authority over visas and immigration. Trump can also veto laws passed by such a Congress, and the Democrats cannot push such legislation through without a two-thirds majority, which they currently do not have.Lobbying effortsMeanwhile, another aspect of the bilateral relationship that will see some shifts in the midterms’ wake is the Indian government and businesses’ lobbying efforts, which will henceforth tap Democratic-aligned groups in a bid to have more access to lawmakers and politicians from that party.After Trump assumed office for a second time early last year the Modi government enlisted the services of SHW Partners – which is run by a Trump campaign veteran – and Mercury Public Affairs, with which the president’s chief of staff was associated until 2024.ChinaThough Washington over the last decade and a half has steadily cultivated India as a balance against an insurgent China, the Trump administration has shown signs of deprioritising this aspect of the Indo-US relationship, with the most conspicuous one being in the absence of a leaders’ summit of the Quad grouping last year, which was supposed to take place in New Delhi.And although Trump in the initial months of his imposed heavy tariffs on China, he has since been forced to take some steps back after Beijing hit back with rare earth export controls, has met with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping twice this year – and is reportedly scheduled to meet him two more times before year-end – and also characterised the Sino-American relationship as the ‘G2’.Some analysts believe that the Democratic leadership in Congress will take a firmer stance on China. As for where India will figure in this equation, Markey, the expert with Stimson, noted that though the midterms do not guarantee a return to the pre-Trump-2.0 situation, the election results “will give India’s leaders new reasons to take a ‘wait and see’ approach over the next two years rather than altogether losing their patience with Washington”.For now, those on Raisina Hill will be watching to see what this year’s scheduled Quad summit – which US secretary of state Marco Rubio has said will take place on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in Manila next month – goes like, if it indeed takes place as planned. But even if it does, the meeting may have more symbolic than substantive value, in the aftermath of the elections and given that Trump cannot return for a third term.In any case, the broader sentiment in New Delhi is that there has been bipartisan investment in the relationship with India over the last two decades or so. The official line is that both sides will remain invested in leveraging US capital and technology in conjunction with India’s large market and workforce regardless of who comes to and leaves power in Washington.This report, first published at 5.44 pm on November 5, was republished at 9.30 am on November 6.