Donald Trump’s visit to Beijing, scheduled for May 13-15, comes at a critical moment when the world is moving through an unusually volatile phase of global politics. Wars in West Asia and Ukraine, disruptions in maritime trade, economic uncertainty, technological rivalry and the weakening of international institutions have all created a climate of instability. In such an uncertain situation, even a diplomatic handshake between the leaders of the world’s two largest economies has significance far beyond political symbolism.When United States (US) President Donald Trump meets Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, the world will be watching whether the two most powerful states in the international system can manage an increasingly dangerous rivalry without pushing the world toward wider confrontation.The visit itself is politically significant. It is the first visit to China by a sitting US president in nine years and Trump’s first trip to Beijing since 2017. During that earlier visit, the atmosphere was dramatically different. China organised a grand diplomatic spectacle, showcasing warmth, economic cooperation and large investment announcements. At that time, there was still some hope that economic interdependence would stabilise the relationship between Washington and Beijing. Today, that optimism has disappeared. The relationship is now determined by tariffs, technological restrictions, military competition, ideological mistrust and geopolitical rivalry.Nonetheless, the paradox is striking. Neither country trusts the other, but neither can afford a total breakdown in relations. The US and China remain interconnected economically even while they compete strategically. This contradiction defines the summit.A major point of engagement will be the economic relationship. Trump returned to power promising to reduce American dependence on China, revive domestic manufacturing and correct what he calls “unfair” trade practices. His administration imposed sweeping tariffs on Chinese imports, in some cases crossing 100%. These measures strikingly reduced Chinese exports to the US. Chinese exports to the US reportedly declined nearly 20% in 2025 and continued falling in early 2026.However, the larger American goal of economically weakening China has not succeeded. Instead, Beijing adapted faster than many in Washington expected. China diversified its trade networks, strengthened ties with countries across Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Middle East, and expanded exports to alternative markets. In the first two months of 2026, Chinese exports reportedly grew by more than 21% globally. What was intended as economic pressure from Washington ended up accelerating China’s long-term strategy of reducing dependence on Western markets.This is, perhaps, the most important background to Trump’s Beijing visit. The trade war changed the structure of global economic relations, but not necessarily in America’s favour. China increasingly portrays itself as a stable supporter of globalisation and multilateral trade, while the US appears more ‘protectionist’ and ‘transactional.’ Many countries, uncertain about Washington’s shifting policies, now seek economic flexibility by strengthening ties with both powers rather than aligning completely with one side.Economic negotiations during the summit are, therefore, likely to focus on stabilising this tenuous relationship. Trump is expected to seek visible economic gains: Chinese purchases of Boeing aircraft, soybean, beef, energy products and greater market access for American firms. There is also discussion about creating institutional mechanisms such as a “Board of Trade” and “Board of Investment” to regulate bilateral trade relations more systematically. These proposals reflect recognition on both sides that unpredictability in economic relations harms global markets and damages investor confidence.FILE. President Donald Trump, left, and Chinese President Xi Jinping, shake hands after their U.S.-China summit talk at Gimhae International Airport Jinping in Busan, South Korea, Oct. 30, 2025. Photo: APStill, these negotiations face several limitations. Commodity deals and headline investment announcements can temporarily reduce tensions, but they do not resolve the issues driving the rivalry. Washington’s concerns go far beyond trade deficits. The US increasingly sees China’s rise in advanced technology and manufacturing as a direct challenge to American global dominance.Technology has now become inseparable from geopolitics. Artificial intelligence, semiconductors, robotics, clean energy systems and critical minerals are instruments of strategic power. The US fears losing technological leadership to China, particularly in areas with military applications.China’s rise in these sectors has been remarkable. Chinese electric vehicle giant BYD reportedly sold more than 2.2 million electric vehicles in 2025, surpassing Tesla globally. Chinese companies dominate large sections of battery manufacturing, solar panel production and drone technology. Firms like DJI control major shares of international drone markets. China also controls critical parts of global rare earth and battery supply chains that are essential for semiconductors, defence systems and renewable energy technologies.This has transformed the nature of US-China competition. The rivalry is essentially about who controls the technologies that will determine military, economic and political power in the twenty-first century.Artificial intelligence illustrates this transformation clearly. American officials see AI as both a commercial revolution and a national security asset. Export controls on advanced chips and semiconductor technologies are designed not merely to protect American industries but to slow China’s strategic advancement. Beijing, meanwhile, sees these restrictions as an attempt to contain its development. Although discussions on AI safety and cooperation may emerge during the summit, neither side is likely to compromise on strategic technological competition.Alongside economics and technology, geopolitics will heavily influence the summit atmosphere. Taiwan remains the most dangerous flashpoint in China-US relations. Beijing repeatedly describes Taiwan as the “core of its core interests” and strongly opposes American arms sales and security cooperation with the island. Chinese officials reportedly hope to secure clearer assurances from Trump regarding Taiwan independence and military support.Trump’s foreign policy style creates uncertainty here. Unlike earlier American administrations that linked Taiwan policy closely to democratic and strategic commitments, Trump often approaches diplomacy through business mode. Beijing may believe this creates opportunities for concessions. However, any significant change in American policy toward Taiwan would affect regional security, American alliances in Asia and Taiwan’s own confidence in US support.The crisis forms another important backdrop to the visit. China depends heavily on Gulf energy imports, including oil from Iran. The continuing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, combined with American military pressure on Tehran, directly affect Chinese economic interests. At the same time, Washington wants Beijing to use its influence over Iran to help stabilise maritime trade routes and reduce tensions.This shows a major contradiction in contemporary international politics. Even while the US and China compete strategically across multiple regions, they still require cooperation on issues such as energy security, global trade, climate change and regional conflicts. Complete decoupling is, therefore, unrealistic.Trump’s foreign policy also impacts the global context of the summit. His approach has troubled not only rivals but also traditional American allies. Aggressive tariffs, unilateral sanctions, shifting alliances and transactional diplomacy have weakened confidence in Washington’s long-term reliability. Many countries now increasingly hedge their positions, seeking strategic flexibility rather than firm alignment with either Washington or Beijing.This has indirectly benefited China. Beijing increasingly presents itself as a predictable economic actor committed to long-term industrial planning and global infrastructure investment. But China also faces serious internal challenges: slowing growth, demographic pressures, rising debt and increasing geopolitical resistance from neighbouring states and Western powers. Therefore, it would be premature to conclude that China has fully replaced American influence.The reality is more challenging. The US still possesses unmatched military reach, enormous technological innovation capacity, strong universities and powerful global alliances. China, meanwhile, has built extraordinary industrial strength, technological capacity and economic networks. The result is the emergence of a more contested international order.For this reason, the Beijing summit is unlikely to fundamentally transform the structure of US-China relations. The rivalry between the two countries is more fundamental. It reflects the tensions between an established global power and a rapidly rising challenger. No summit, however successful diplomatically, can remove this basic contradiction.What the meeting may achieve instead is temporary stabilisation. Mechanisms for dialogue, trade coordination, crisis management, and limited cooperation can reduce risks of uncontrolled escalation. Even symbolic agreements matter in a world already burdened by wars, sanctions, economic fragmentation and political mistrust.Still, the world should not confuse temporary accommodation with lasting reconciliation. The disputes over Taiwan, critical technologies, military power, trade rules and global influence will continue long after the ceremonial images in Beijing are forgotten.However, diplomacy holds value precisely because the alternatives are so dangerous. A direct confrontation between the US and China would devastate global trade, financial markets, supply chains and international stability. Plausibly, when mistrust increasingly dominates global politics, even limited dialogue between rival powers has strategic importance.As Trump arrives in Beijing, the world will closely watch not only for trade deals or investment announcements but for indications about the future of the international order itself. Will the two countries build mechanisms to manage rivalry responsibly, or continue drifting toward confrontation? It remains to be seen.What is already becoming unmistakably clear is that the age when the US could single-handedly change the global order has faded into history, while the moment of uncontested Chinese supremacy has still not arrived. The world now stands deferred between a declining unipolar order and an uncertain new balance of power, entering a long and uneasy era of competitive coexistence between two rival giants whose contest will cast its shadow over global politics for decades to come.K.M. Seethi is director, Inter University Centre for Social Science Research and Extension and academic advisor to the International Centre for Polar Studies at the Mahatma Gandhi University (MGU) in Kerala. He also served as ICSSR senior fellow, senior professor of international relations and dean of social sciences at MGU.