New Delhi: Ahead of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit, Russia said Tuesday (December 2) that Western sanctions may briefly lead to only an “insignificant” drop in oil supplies to India, with Moscow planning to deploy “more sophisticated” technologies to evade restrictions imposed over the Ukraine war.Putin arrives in India this week for a two-day visit to the capital as part of the annual summit mechanism between the two countries. Indian officials have said the summit will focus on economic aspects of the bilateral relationship, with agreements expected in mobility, trade, economy, healthcare, culture, academics and media.The visit comes as India’s crude imports from Russia are set to dip this month under pressure from sanctions, adding scrutiny to Putin’s first trip to New Delhi since the Ukraine invasion began.New Delhi is acutely aware of the heightened international interest. A joint article authored by the ambassadors of France, the United Kingdom and Germany in the Times of India on Monday drew sharp criticism after urging India to use its influence with Moscow over the Ukraine conflict while arguing that Russia is not serious about peace.It led to a strong reaction, with a senior Indian official claiming that the article was “very unusual”. “It is not an acceptable diplomatic practice to give public advice on third-country relations. So we have taken note of this particular article that has been published,” he said. However, New Delhi has not issued formal diplomatic protests to the three countries.Since the Ukraine war began, Russia has become India’s largest source of imported crude. But despite China being Russia’s biggest oil buyer, the Donald Trump administration has specifically targeted India this year, imposing tariffs of up to 50% on Indian exports to the US, half of which is explicitly linked to the Russian oil trade.The US treasury also began imposing sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, in late November, leading to a visible drop in India’s oil imports from Russia. The decline is expected to deepen in December, as no Indian refiners are purchasing additional supplies from these sanctioned entities.However, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told Indian reporters in a video briefing from Moscow that any dip would be temporary, as Russia is finding ways to maintain trade volumes.“There can be, for a very brief time, insignificant drops and decreases in the volume of oil trade,” he said at the event organised by Russian state media Sputnik News.He emphasised that Moscow is working to ensure its trade continues and that Indian purchasers can enjoy guaranteed supplies of crude and crude products.“We are managing that quite successfully. We have deep experience in performing under the regime of these illegal sanctions,” Peskov said, adding that Russia has its own technologies for circumventing restrictions. “Of course, we’ll continue to make those technologies more sophisticated should this practice of sanctions continue.”A senior Indian official maintained New Delhi’s long-standing position that energy purchases remain a matter of commercial consideration.“As far as energy sourcing is concerned … we have said this several times and what we have said before stays correct at this point in time as well, that Indian companies who are into oil imports, into energy sourcing, they take these decisions based on the dynamics in the international market,” the official said.He conceded that Western restrictions are now a critical component of the “dynamics in the international market”, effectively shaping the procurement choices of Indian refiners.“When I say dynamics in the international market, obviously there are several issues such as sanctions which they have to look at,” the official added. “So that forms part of their decision making”.A comprehensive analysis published by market intelligence firm Kpler on Tuesday was more in line with Moscow’s assessment, stating that Russian crude supply to India will not disappear but will instead move through “increasingly indirect and less transparent means”.To manage the risk, Indian refiners are pivoting to “non-sanctioned Russian entities and opaque trading channels”. The report detailed that this requires “complex logistics, STS [ship-to-ship] transfers near Mumbai and mid-voyage diversions” to minimise visible exposure to regulators.The Kpler analysis concluded that the supply chain “will become more intermediated”, but the crude “will still find its way to market”. However, it warned that non-sanctioned producers can fill the breach, but “not perfectly and not without risk”, especially if sanctions widen beyond specific entities.Beyond the oil trade, Peskov said that a strategic priority was to insulate overall economic relations from external pressure.“There is a pressure over India. Actually this is the reason that we have to be very careful in creating an architecture of our relationship that must be free of any influence coming from [a] third country,” he said.To achieve this target without exposure to Western financial systems, Peskov stressed that transactions now rely heavily on local currencies. “Almost all trade between Russia and India is conducted in national currencies,” he noted.Addressing the significant trade imbalance, where Russia exports far more than it imports from India, Peskov said that fixing this deficit is a major goal. “We are jointly seeking opportunities to increase imports from India to Russia,” he said, confirming that a special “forum of importers” is being organised to pursue increased Indian imports of goods and services.Bilateral trade had risen more than five-fold in four years, from $13 billion in 2021 to $68 billion in 2024-25, largely on the back of the oil trade after the Ukraine war, but it has led to India’s trade deficit with Russia widening nearly nine times to $58.9 billion.A senior Indian official also noted that Russia had made intensified efforts to increase purchases from India. “A number of Indian companies have been listed recently who would be allowed to export marine products to Russia,” he said. India’s shrimp export industry had been one of the Indian sectors that was hardest hit due to the US tariffs.“Exports of potatoes and pomegranates from India [were also] allowed just last month. We expect that many of our producers of these products will participate,” he said.Negotiations for a free trade agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union have also begun, with the first round held last week. Indian officials hoped that the trade pact, once finalised, will bring down current trade barriers to increase Indian exports.Traditionally, defence ties had a higher focus in India-Russia ties, overshadowing the economic aspect of the relationship. Russia had long been the biggest weapons supplier to the Indian defence sector, but its share has come down as India has stepped up purchases from France, Israel and the United States. Still it accounts for over one-third of foreign weapons purchases.While a senior Indian official maintained that as per protocol “defence deals are never announced during Annual Summits”, the Kremlin spokesperson confirmed that the sale of additional S-400 long-range anti-aircraft missiles is “highly on the agenda”.Besides the S-400, Peskov also stated that talks on the Sukhoi Su-57 fifth-generation stealth fighter jet will be on the table.On Tuesday the Duma, the lower house of Russia’s parliament, ratified the Reciprocal Exchange of Logistic Support agreement that was signed in February and which would create a framework for the exchange of military formations, aircraft and ships between the two countries as well as the arrangement of logistical support.The senior official also stated that Moscow, which built the Kudankulam nuclear power plant, will make an offer on small modular reactor (SMR) technology.“Mr [Alexey] Likhachev, chief executive of Rosatom, will be joining the president during his visit. And he will be carrying an offer for this small reactor in his bag,” Peskov said.He added that Russia possesses “very important technologies of small and very flexible nuclear reactors” and is ready to “supply [these] technologies to our Indian friends”.The Indian side confirmed the topic may come up in discussions.“Our focus is on completion of existing projects. But SMR is something that has been talked about a lot,” a senior official said. “The Department of Atomic Energy is also working on its own various projects, so completion of existing projects, fuel cycle, provision of life safety support systems – these are the important issues that will be discussed.”