New Delhi: When Samajwadi party MP and former chief minister of Uttar Pradesh Akhilesh Yadav got up in the Lok Sabha today (April 16) to say that the Narendra Modi government was misusing delimitation to change the electoral map of the country, there was quiet in the treasury benches.Yadav said that his party wants the caste census to be conducted first, following which a delimitation is to be done.“When we listen to the prime minister, he says he belongs to the backward classes. But when it comes to reservation, I would like to hear the government speak on how much is going to be reserved for the backward classes,” Yadav said.Yadav noted that the BJP is against waiting for the census because it if does wait for the census then it has to wait for reservation as well.“What if they don’t count OBCs and Muslims in half the population which is women? We want Muslim and OBC women to get reservation, this is our demand.”Yadav also opposed the rotation of seats to implement women reservation. “They are running away from the census because the demand for caste census will rise, following which demand for reservations will rise.”Why the BJP has latched onto the 2011 Census as the basis for its move to quickly affect women’s reservation is a serious question.One explanation is that it allows the party to tilt the constituency balance towards its home ground, the Hindi cow belt, before the 2029 Lok Sabha election as accounting for 2026 data may take longer.Another is that the population growth, in even Hindi belt states, may have peaked in 2011. Population demographic transition figures indicate that in 2026, what we may see is a slight shrinking. So states that the BJP is more confident about may be able to corner more seats with only the 2011 Census figures.But, as Akhilesh Yadav was saying, as the caste census will reveal the extent of OBC (and Muslim) marginalisation, calls for reserving seats for OBC women will arise. They are not currently accounted for. Is the Bharatiya Janata Party therefore not willing to see the process of full Bahujan representation through as part of its ‘nari shakti vandan,’ as the reservation bill is called?‘Little incentive to let caste census numbers reshape power dynamics’Rashtriya Janata Dal MP in the Rajya Sabha, Professor Manoj K. Jha is clear about the complexities a caste census will reveal, making a simplistic Hindutva push difficult. Jha told The Wire, “One of the very obvious concerns see that that waiting for a caste census could fundamentally alter the political terrain before delimitation. Detailed caste data might strengthen demands for proportional representation, especially from OBC communities, making seat redistribution far more contested.” His party, the RJD, along with Nitish Kumar who was then not a part of the National Democratic Alliance, got independent India’s first caste census in a state done in Bihar. He added, “For the Bharatiya Janata Party, this [caste census] could dilute carefully built electoral coalitions or complicate its current dominance in key regions. Proceeding with delimitation first, then, can be seen as a way to lock in structural advantages before new data reshapes expectations, alliances, and claims to political power across states and social groups.”CPI(M) leader, Brinda Karat has written today on how a fear of containing a rise in SC and ST populations, as has been the trend, in the ongoing Census, is potentially a reason on the BJP rushing to try and affect the reservation with the 2011 Census as the basis. She writes that at the time of the 1971 Census, the seats reserved for those in SC communities was 79 and those in ST communities, 41. It rose to 84 for SCs and 47 for STs. “From 2001 to 2026, the population would have certainly registered a bigger increase,” she added. To claim urgency for women’s reservation, she wrote, is “manuvadi injustice to oppressed communities.”Says sociologist Professor S.S. Jodhka, “If at all the caste census is done, it will take a long time to synthesise the data from jatis into some coherent pattern. It is unclear if the government is going ahead with it, really, and when data would be available.”Zoya Hasan, political scientist and professor emerita of JNU, told The Wire that the BJP is likely unwilling to wait for the 2026 Census as it will include caste data – the first such exercise since 1931 – that could upset its political arithmetic. “While it reluctantly agreed to a caste census, it has little incentive to let those numbers reshape power dynamics. The 2011 census is safer; a caste count risks empowering OBCs to demand more and possibly look beyond the BJP. That could reshape political calculations, and potentially alter existing power balances.”“Seen in this light, the delimitation and the proposed changes to the Lok Sabha appear designed to translate the BJP’s dominance in the Hindi heartland into a durable structural advantage. This is not about women’s reservations or caste date or even winning the next election, but about reshaping representation in a way that helps to bring the party as close as possible to a built-in, if not permanent, parliamentary majority,” Hasan said.