New Delhi: Whether driven by social engineering, compulsions of transactional coalition politics or a defensive response to electoral reverses in 2022 and 2024, there is a jump in Other Backward Classes (OBC) and Dalit castes in Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath’s council of ministers. Adityanath is serving his second term as chief minister in Uttar Pradesh and faces a tough assembly election next year.An analysis by The Wire of ministerial berths assigned since Adityanath came to power in 2017 makes this shift in their caste composition more visible. In comparison to his first tenure, Adityanath’s current stint has allocated significantly more space to OBCs and Dalits at the direct expense of the traditional ‘upper castes’ (UCs).However, notwithstanding the gradual increase in representation of the marginalised and backward Hindu communities, UCs, in particular Brahmins and Thakurs, continue to enjoy ministerial berths disproportionately higher than their population in the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) rule.Brahmins and Thakurs are the single biggest beneficiaries of ministerial posts under Adityanath 2.0 with a combined strength of 15, which is 25% of the total berths. In comparison, Dalits, who make up 21.5% of the state’s population, have only 18% representation in the council of ministers. This is only marginally better than the 15% representation they enjoyed during the tail-end of Adityanath’s first government.Looking aheadWith the assembly elections less than a year away, the BJP has started the process of adjusting its caste arithmetic. After capturing vast swathes of the electoral field in India’s largest and most politically significant state in the 2014 and 2017 elections, the saffron party has been constantly losing ground. This makes the 2027 assembly election the first one the BJP would fight since 2014 on the heels of a popular defeat in the state in the 2024 parliamentary polls.The BJP’s gameplan in UP has primarily hinged on projecting the unity and representation of Hindus, cutting across caste lines. Last week, Adityanath expanded his council of ministers to its maximum allowed strength (60). Six new ministers, including two cabinet ministers, were inducted into Adityanath’s team, while two existing ministers were promoted with independent portfolios.Of these six new ministers, five hail from backward and Dalit Hindu castes. The cabinet expansion and induction of ministers from these communities is part of a considered narrative to project caste balance among different Hindu ‘jatis’.The BJP’s caste realignment also appears to be a direct defensive reaction to a resurgent Opposition led by Samajwadi Party (SP) chief Akhilesh Yadav. The SP chief has made concerted efforts to shift from a rigid ‘Muslim-Yadav’ image, pivoting towards a broader caste rainbow under the banner of PDA (Pichda-Dalit-Alpsankhyak). This reinvention of Mandal politics through a Kanshi Ram-esque formula of ‘proportional representation’ has significantly altered the caste game in the state.The ruling party’s cabinet provides a clear window into the broader socio-political dynamics of its rule. The Wire extracted the caste background of every minister in UP under the two governments of Adityanath and compared them at their peak strength – September 2021 for the first term and May 2026 for the second term.During his first tenure (2017-2022), Adityanath’s council of ministers had a higher percentage of UCs. Out of the 60 ministers, 27 (45%) were UC, while 23 (38.3%) were OBC and nine (15%) were Dalits. The government also had a single token Muslim minister.In comparison, in his second term, the share of OBC and Dalit representation has increased. The number of UC ministers has fallen: of the 60 ministers, 26 (43.3%) are OBC, 22 (36.7%) are UC and 11 (18.3%) are Dalits. The number of Muslims remains the same – one.The second Adityanath government has three more OBCs, two additional Dalits and five fewer UCs than during the first term.It is important to point out that OBCs are the single largest bloc in the state, estimated to be between 40 to 45%, or perhaps even higher. Dalits make up 21.5% of the population while Muslims are 19.5%. UCs such as Brahmins, Tyagis, Bhumihars, Thakurs, Baniyas, Kayasthas and Khatris make up the rest.The redistribution of power becomes even more pronounced while examining the representation of cabinet ministers, the most powerful tier of the three ministerial categories. During his first term, Adityanath had 24 cabinet ministers, including himself. An overwhelming 16 (66.7%) berths belonged to UCs. OBCs lagged far behind with just seven (29.2%) cabinet ministers while Dalits had a solitary representative (4.1%).In comparison, today the 23-member cabinet presents a vastly different social profile. OBCs have leaped ahead to hold 11 berths (47.82%), while UC have dropped to 10 (43.47%) and Dalits hold two (8.69%). The Adityanath 2.0 cabinet, the core team of senior ministers, comprises four Brahmins, three Kurmis, two each from the Thakur, Rajbhar, Bhumihar, Jat and Jatav communities, and one each from the Baniya, Noniya Chauhan, Maurya-Kushwaha, Khatri, Nishad and Lodhi Rajput castes. Adityanath is himself a Kshatriya or ‘Thakur’.This increased representation of OBCs in the cabinet can partly be attributed to the BJP’s increasing dependence on smaller OBC allies. Out of the 23 cabinet ministers, four (three OBCs and one Dalit) belong to BJP’s allies. These are the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP), Apna Dal (Soneylal), Nishad Party and the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD).Upper castes overrepresented at the cost of MuslimsBut there is another side to this reality. UCs still continue to be overrepresented under the BJP because the BJP does not field Muslim candidates in elections. With no need to make Muslims ministers, the party can make more OBCs and Dalits ministers, while keeping the UCs overrepresented at the cost of Muslims.The caste composition of the ministers during the two terms of the BJP government clearly demonstrates the exclusion of the Yadavs. Both Adityanath governments have only had a single Yadav minister, even though the community makes up around one-fifth of the state’s OBC population and is one of the most active, socially as well as politically. At present, out of the 26 OBC ministers in UP, as many as 25 hail from non-Yadav OBCs.To counter the long dominance of the SP and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in UP, the BJP’s strategy over the past couple of decades has focused on isolating the Muslim, Yadav and Jatav voters while wooing the rest of the Hindu communities – the UCs, the non-Yadav OBCs and the non-Jatav Dalits. Through ‘Hindutva’, the BJP still does try to wean away sections of Yadavs and Jatavs but when it comes to giving them power in respect to their population, the party has ignored them, especially the former, who are considered core voters of the SP.Without any credible evidence, the BJP has doubled down on the narrative that the previous governments of the SP appeased Muslims and showered the Yadavs with the cream of the privileges, entitlements, share in jobs and government power while leaving the other backward castes and Dalits under-represented and neglected.With former chief minister and SP supremo Akhilesh Yadav mobilising marginalised and backward Hindu castes along with the sizable Muslim population, in addition to making other strategic alliances, the BJP suffered big reversals in the last two elections. In 2024, when the SP’s PDA strategy faced the might of the ‘double engine’ government of the BJP, the Opposition INDIA alliance scripted a remarkable turnaround. The BJP’s defeat in UP (in terms of seats) at the hands of the SP-led INDIA bloc, also led to a surge in the number of OBC MPs in the state. Interestingly, this change in social composition of MP’s came at the cost of the UCs.The strategy to field more OBCs and Dalits helped the Opposition outmuscle the BJP in the fight for samajik nyay or ‘social justice’, a code for caste-based representation. Almost half of the Opposition MPs elected in 2024 – 21 out of 43 – were OBCs. Nine were Dalits, eight UCs and five Muslims. In comparison, out of the 36 NDA MPs elected in 2024, the highest number were UCs (15), followed by OBCs (13) and Dalits (8).Fourteen years ago, when Akhilesh Yadav came to power with a full majority, his council of ministers (total strength of 48 in March, 2012) included 10 Muslims and nine Yadavs. In comparison, team Adityanath has only one Yadav and one Muslim, none of them in the cabinet. At its maximum strength of 60 in September 2021, Adityanath’s first government had 11 Brahmins and seven (7) Thakurs as ministers.While the 2024 result came as a big shock to the BJP, the sands had already started shifting in 2022. Backed by smaller OBC allies and a campaign promising a ‘pichdo ka inquilab’ and ‘rights, honour and representation’ as per their share in population, the Akhilesh Yadav-led SP alliance increased its tally from 47 in 2017 to a formidable 125 in 2022.Though Yadav fell short of the majority mark by almost 80 seats, the BJP clearly sensed a threat to the OBC and Dalit vote it had almost monopolised in the one-sided sweeps in 2014, 2017 and 2019. The 2022 result, combined with this shifting caste narrative, propelled Yadav into position as a serious challenger to the BJP.With the crucial 2027 Assembly election fast approaching, the BJP’s recent actions show it recognises this vulnerability. Today, the party appears much more dependent on the OBC and Dalit vote, and the support of its smaller OBC allies. By trying to concede more space to OBCs and Dalits, it has acknowledged the Opposition’s improved caste arithmetic as well as the hard bargaining potential of these communities. Caste arithmetic remains the definitive key to power in Lucknow and the BJP’s decision to expand the cabinet months ahead of the election reflects its political insecurities and electoral vulnerabilities.Omar Rashid is an independent journalist.