When the University Grants Commission (UGC) got the green signal from the big two for its new guidelines, the ruling elite and party insiders were in a happy mood. It was hoped that the guidelines would make a real breakthrough in winning the support of the Dalit, Other Backward Classes (OBC) and such other sections in the four opposition-ruled states where the assembly elections are due.Apparently, the decision to fight the polls in West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry on a populist plank was taken at the highest levels. And it was communicated to the party’s senior functionaries, who promptly set about implementing what was widely seen as a potential electoral advantage in these states.The UGC guidelines were notified on January 13, exactly a month ago. And when isolated local protests began within days on January 17, it was a wake-up call for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah. Within a week, it spread across Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. What was hailed as a smart blueprint for non-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-ruled states has now boomeranged on the ruling party. This happened because the post-2014 BJP’s sole winning formula has been Hindu unity plus Modi aura.The UGC guidelines tend to do the opposite: they divide Hindu society. This explains the sudden panic within the BJP.The hard fact is that such policy slip-ups are endemic to the duo’s closed decision-making system. Had it held wider consultations with free and fair discussions at party forums, someone might have raised the possibility of adverse reactions from within the Hindutva ranks and the threats it posed to the BJP’s core strategy of caste consolidation.Before the duo disowned the earlier populist plank following protests, the same happened at the parliamentary standing committee on education, whose cooperation the Supreme Court had sought. The Congress-party members of the committee not only extended cooperation but also immensely contributed to drawing up the guidelines, despite it being chaired by Congress leader Digvijaya Singh.After unanimously endorsing the draft, it was forwarded to the UGC. The committee’s draft was exhaustive and the UGC, as per the Supreme Court directive, extensively made use of it. Among the Congress members of the standing committee were the party’s senior spokespersons like Ravi Shankar Prasad and Sambit Patra. Others were Members of Parliament like Bansuri Swaraj, Ghanshyam Tiwari and Rekha Sharma of the BJP.Also read: How Upper Caste Groups’ Backlash Against UGC’s New Regulations Highlight Unease With BJP’s Hindutva PoliticsThe root cause of the BJP’s guidelines fiasco was the prevailing belief that the ‘high command knows everything’ and your duty was to carry out its directions without questioning. Accordingly, even as the top two and their close aides were discussing how to tackle the clash of policies, Union Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan was vociferously defending the UGC guidelines, which he said would curb caste-based discrimination on campuses.“I assure everyone there will be no discrimination and so no one can misuse the law,” Pradhan reportedly said. The guidelines would not be misused against anyone. If anyone misused the rules, strict action would be taken against them. Pradhan fell silent when the high command made a volte-face.Initially, Union Minister Kiren Rijiju had also strongly defended the guidelines and said they were well “within the law”. Textile minister Giriraj Singh had also first welcomed the guidelines for protecting Sanatan views. He later deleted the post and thanked Modi and Shah for the Supreme Court’s intervention to stay the guidelines.Bareilly City Magistrate Alankar Agnihotri (R), suspended over indiscipline after he resigned in protest against the UGC equity rules (now stayed by court order), is welcomed in Kanpur, January 31, 2026. Photo: PTI.Last time the UGC formulated guidelines was in 2012. Petitions were filed in the Supreme Court following the suicide of Rohith Vemula in 2016. A medical student had also pleaded for stricter anti-discrimination norms. In January 2025, the Supreme Court directed the UGC to frame new guidelines. A draft was released in February 2025 and reviewed by parliament’s standing committee, headed by Digvijaya Singh.Also read: Supreme Court Stays New UGC Guidelines to Tackle Caste-Based DiscriminationUnder the new UGC guidelines, higher education institutions were to set up campus panels to address complaints and issues on caste-based discrimination. They were also to set up an ‘equal opportunity centre’ which would address complaints of discrimination on campus. Their tasks included resolving complaints coming from disadvantaged sections.They would also coordinate with civil society groups, local media, police, district administration, NGOs, faculty members, staff and parents to ensure that no discrimination takes place on campus. Another role was to ensure inclusion and participation of OBCs, Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes, persons with disabilities and women on campus.The guidelines specify that squads would be responsible for monitoring vulnerable spaces on campus. Additionally, equity ambassadors would act as points of contact in hostels, departments and libraries. Ambassadors must also ensure preventive and protective measures, including setting up helpline numbers and monitoring systems, and regularly report to the UGC.It was such elaborate guidelines that the Supreme Court had in its wisdom found “prima facie vague”, capable of having “very sweeping consequences” and which “may end up dividing the society” with “dangerous impact”. The court orally observed that if the judiciary did not intervene in the matter, it would lead to “dangerous impact” and “divide the society”.In the present guidelines imbroglio, the judiciary has not come out in flying colours. As a former member of the UGC put it, the now-scrapped guidelines were drafted on the explicit orders of the Supreme Court and in accordance with the procedures it had suggested. As he points out, the formation of a grievance redress committee where Scheduled Tribe, Scheduled Caste and OBC communities were represented, and with a chairperson from those very communities, was suggested by the same bench of Chief Justice of India Surya Kant and Justice Joymalya Bagchi on September 15, 2025.Thus, writes the former member, the horror expressed by the same bench just four months later seems rather odd. There is nothing remotely draconian or anti-General Category about the new rules. He also quotes a study based on interviews with 600 Scheduled Caste students across 10 universities. It found two-thirds of them experienced discrimination even during their vivas and interviews. University teachers were the main perpetrators of such slurs.The SC’s stay and oral remarks have sparked fierce debates across academia and the legal community. Some described the stay as a “betrayal” of constitutional premises on social justice and a setback in the fight for social justice.A senior analyst said the very practice of keeping in abeyance serious decisions in the form of stay orders is another “unfortunate example” of dealing with hugely consequential decisions in a casual manner. He found serious lapses in the interim stay.The protests against the guidelines were not so sudden. They started in interior areas of Uttar Pradesh barely three days after the guidelines were notified on January 13. Much to the chagrin of the Delhi bosses, the leaderless movement spread like wildfire. In the state, a senior divisional magistrate, Alankar Agnihotri, resigned over the issue.Bharatiya Janata Yuva Morcha vice-president Raju Pandit resigned with immediate effect, accusing the BJP leadership of imposing a “black law” and acting against upper caste students. The protesters also filed a Public Interest Litigation in the Supreme Court. In Uttar Pradesh, outfits like Karni Sena and Savarna Sena led the protests, with several BJP leaders resigning to register their protest. There were local rallies in Jaunpur, Deoria, Mirzapur, Hapur, Aligarh, Meerut, Gorakhpur, Prayagraj and Lucknow. Reports said at least half a dozen middle-level BJP leaders in districts had resigned.Also read: UGC: India’s Higher Education Needs More Than Symbolic Equity-Driven MeasuresThey were mostly local leaders who were apparently encouraged by senior state leaders. The All-India Hindu Sena president wrote a memorandum to President Draupadi Murmu. In the national capital, BJP’s upper caste workers staged protests at UGC headquarters. Brahmin Mahasabha and Kayastha Sabha in Maharashtra were other Hindutva outfits that joined the protests.Undoubtedly, the UGC’s guidelines shook the BJP’s core support base in the Hindi hinterland. The BJP top brass realise the implications of alienating communities like Brahmins, Kayasthas and other upper caste groups who have revolted against the UGC guidelines. It was the same ideological foundation that had propped up the Modi regime all the while.With so much anger within the ranks, all the aura and charm Modi built over the years had turned ineffective in calming the angry upper castes. So the duo’s first priority was to ensure the cooperation of Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, who also strongly felt the need to scrap the guidelines as a compromise with Hindutva hardliners.Meanwhile, the biggest nightmare for the BJP top two has been the possibility of a backlash from lower caste groups. In case these groups organise and launch protests for restoring the guidelines, it will damage MoSha’s strategy of unification of Hindu non-elite castes for a wider Hindutva base. A Delhi protest by pro-guidelines groups came as a warning in this regard. However, the possibility of such an upsurge was rated bleak.According to the regulator, caste-based discrimination is on the rise on college and university campuses. Complaints of caste-based discrimination increased 118.4 per cent in five years, from 173 cases in 2019-20 to 378 in 2023-24. A total of 1,160 complaints were received from 704 universities and 1,553 colleges during this period. The UGC cited this data to highlight the need for stronger protection for oppressed castes on campuses.Consider the name-calling of Dalit students in some of the top institutions of the country: “quota children”, “category wala” or “cata students”, “sarkari damaad” or “sarkari Brahmin” or “behenji”. The same permeates everywhere: admissions, evaluation, supervision, hostel life, administration and disciplinary mechanisms.In an age of fractured mandates, personality cults and transactional alliances, P. Raman brings clarity to India’s shifting political equations. With Realpolitik, the veteran journalist peers beneath the slogans and spin to reveal the power plays, spectacle, crises and insecurities driving India’s politics.