When the Congress government in Telangana tabled the summary of its caste survey report in the Assembly this year, it laid a cornerstone for Indian politics. Even though Bihar and Karnataka had undertaken similar surveys in the past, the Telangana administration conducted a more comprehensive exercise to gather caste-linked economic, social and educational data, making it a unique case.Among those who hailed the project was Kancha Ilaiah Shepherd, writer, activist and retired professor, who called it “historic”. For decades, Ilaiah and like-minded intellectuals pressed for a caste survey in the state and the country, which has finally materialised.“Such a survey has never been done in India. Neither the monarchies, nor the British, nor state governments ever attempted something like this,” says Ilaiah, who served as vice chairman of the Independent Expert Working Group (IEWG) constituted by the Telangana government to examine the outcome of Social, Educational, Economic, Employment, Political and Caste (SEEEPC) survey.The vice-presidential candidate of the INDIA coalition, Justice B. Sudarshan Reddy, was the chairman of the committee. Ilaiah believes that the data has the potential to shake up the logic and conscience of Indian polity. He argues that the 300-page report submitted by the committee to the government justifies the Congress government’s proposal to raise OBC reservation in jobs, education and local bodies to 42%.According to him, the survey, a promise made by Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, also marks his emergence as a reformist leader willing to take risks.What the data saysThe survey counted 242 castes among 3.5 crore people in the state. Using 43 parameters, the expert group prepared a ‘Composite Backwardness Index’ in which every caste, Ilaiah explains, was assessed on indicators such as education, employment, housing, property and social status. The outcome revealed that OBCs, including Muslim backward classes, account for more than half of the state’s population at 56.3%.“The data would strengthen the government’s case to defend 42 per cent reservation for OBCs. Courts have always asked whether the numbers justify it. Now the evidence is there,” he says.He explains why Muslim backward castes should be seen through the prism of caste, since Shudra and Dalit converts to Islam continued with their traditional occupations. Typically, barbers remained barbers and leather workers remained leather workers. They continued to be caught in caste entanglement even without untouchability, he adds.“This data is useful for economic welfare readjustment,” he says, “It shows, for example, that a certain number of houses is still unconnected to electricity and drinking water. These things came up in the data. There are some nomadic BC castes like Pichakuntla and Gangireddulas. They can be settled at some place to send their children to school. Not every reform requires money; state intervention can help sometimes,” says the author of the book Why I Am Not a Hindu.The SCs were found to be 17.4%, STs 10.45% and OCs 15.7%. Regarding comparisons with an intensive household survey conducted by the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) government in 2014 (then known as Telangana Rashtra Samithi), whose numbers differed from the Congress government’s survey, Ilaiah calls the BRS exercise unscientific, noting that its authenticity was doubtful, since it was completed in a single day and without proper methodology such as caste coding.Congress’ gamble with OBCIn March, the Congress government in Telangana passed two bills to increase BC reservations to 42% in government employment, education and local body polls. In July, the state government submitted an ordinance to enhance BC quota to 42% in the upcoming local body polls. Both the bills and the ordinance were forwarded to the President by governor Jishnu Dev Varma.Earlier this month, chief minister A. Revanth Reddy, along with his cabinet, staged a protest at Jantar Mantar in New Delhi, demanding presidential assent for the bills and blaming the BJP-led Union government for blocking them.Pushing through the survey and fighting for reservation, as an upper-caste Reddy leader batting for BCs, is a “feather in the cap” moment for chief minister A. Revanth Reddy, feels Ilaiah.“Congress, till 2019, was a mobiliser of upper castes, Dalits, Adivasis, Muslims and Christian minorities, except in Punjab,” he says. “There had been no OBC support for them since the early 1980s, from Indira Gandhi’s time. The regional parties were Shudra OBC parties led by leaders like Mulayam Singh Yadav. The only exceptions were two regional parties with Brahmin leaders — Mamata Banerjee and Biju Patnaik. So, the Congress lost the support of Shudra OBCs, and the BJP used them over the last 16 years as part of the Hindu vote.”He says that on the issue of Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel, the Congress, by not owning him, allowed the BJP to appropriate him and begin building statues of him, while farmers and Shudras moved into their hold. “So now the Congress has taken this up. It is better to negotiate with Patel also.”Even if the Congress’s push for OBC reservation is electorally advantageous, won’t it alienate other groups like SCs and STs from its fold? Ilaiah does not think so. He feels that the chances of Dalits or Adivasis shifting to the BJP are slim.“Even if 20% of OBCs shift to Congress, I don’t think they will lose correspondingly that much in Dalit and Adivasi areas. There is even a possibility of the Congress coming back to power on its own due to the OBC issue,” he says.Rahul Gandhi – betting on caste surveyFor Ilaiah, the Telangana survey has already achieved what Rahul Gandhi has been campaigning for since his Bharat Jodo Yatra days – mainstreaming the demand for a national caste census.“Intellectuals sympathetic to the Congress opposed him when he raised it, and they hoped the BJP would not allow it,” Ilaiah recalls. “He was in two minds as leaders like Jairam Ramesh and Manish Tiwari were against a caste census. Anand Sharma even wrote a letter. The media was not enthusiastic either. But Rahul stuck his neck out and said caste census is an x-ray of society. That risk forced the BJP to announce a national caste census. That is his greatest achievement.”According to Ilaiah, Rahul is a leader with a “reformist bent of mind” who has started a new phase for the Congress in its 140-year history. He feels that Rahul is on the path of course correction regarding the grand old party’s attitude towards OBC voters and leaders.“People (OBCs) have been holding public meetings, seminars, rallies, raising demands. But the Congress refused to see their point. Their stand was that OBCs reduced Congress to a minority. They formed their own regional parties. But the question is why did they form them? Because the Congress did not give them an opportunity to become big leaders,” he said.However, he adds that unlike in recent times, during the Nehru period OBC leaders like K. Kamaraj and Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel were promoted well in the leadership ladder, and Rahul is attempting to repeat that.In his personal interactions with Rahul, Ilaiah found him to be a well-read individual, familiar with his writings on caste and not power-hungry. He believes that if the Congress comes to power, one cannot assume Rahul Gandhi will automatically become prime minister, as OBC leaders like Siddaramaiah and Sachin Pilot also stand a chance. And if regional parties in the INDIA alliance like the Samajwadi Party do well, then why not Akhilesh Yadav too, he asks.Whatever the case, Ilaiah feels one thing is clear, “I am convinced that BJP cannot make India a theocratic corporate state. They were planning it. Rahul has stopped it,” he said.Impact on BJPFor the BJP, the Telangana survey and the push for 42 per cent OBC reservation present both a political and ideological crisis. If the President assents, Telangana can go ahead with enhanced BC quotas and hold local body polls under the new formula. Analysts feel that would mean handing credit to the Congress, which would translate into an electoral magnet for the OBC community in the polls.At the core of BJP’s resistance is the inclusion of Muslim backward classes in the OBC list. They are placed in a sub-category called BC-E in Telangana. They get quota benefits as OBCs, not as a “religious quota.” The BJP argues that it amounts to a religion-based reservation and allege that it is unconstitutional, saying the Congress is resorting to appeasement politics. Around 10 per cent of Telangana’s population are Muslim OBCs and another 2 per cent are Muslim upper castes.Kancha Ilaiah argues that BJP’s objection is selective. “The same BJP which gave 10 per cent quota to less than 10 per cent of the population through EWS is now refusing to recognise OBCs who form more than half of the population. Why? Because it gives enormous credibility to the Congress government in the state and to Rahul Gandhi at the Centre,” he said.He questions why no OBC chief minister of the BJP has conducted a similar caste survey in the past and reasons that it is because they are fundamentally opposed to OBC reservations.“The BJP operates on a classical mode and it helps the upper castes,” Ilaiah insists. “They may project Narendra Modi as an OBC Prime Minister, but in policy terms they operate for the upper castes. The privatisation drive has systematically shifted public sector jobs, where reservations apply, into private monopolies run by Baniyas and Brahmins. Where is the OBC benefit in that?”He sees the OBC reservation push as a masterstroke by the Congress as he predicts that community youth will rally against the BJP in the future.Ripple effects of reservationThe total reservations in the state could reach more than 75% if the President assents to the reservation bills. Previous Supreme Court judgements (the Indra Sawhney case of 1992) capped the maximum reservation at 50% though exceptions could be made under extraordinary circumstances. The Tamil Nadu government, however, has 69% reservations which was navigated through an introduction of a Special Act.In the 2010 K. Krishna Murthy vs Union of India case, reservations for local body polls too were capped at 50%. But the 2022 Janhit Abhiyan vs Union of India (EWS case) opened the doors, as the court upheld the 10% reservation for EWS, pushing the total beyond 50%. Even though there is a high probability that the Telangana government’s attempts may reach the courts at some point, the government is confident that its caste census data will help it ride through.The most visible outcome of the caste survey was the BJP-led central government deciding to endorse caste enumeration.“In case the reservations are applied, it will immediately have an impact on employment, education and local bodies. So, the educated OBC mobility will be very short and they will rise into the middle class,” says Ilaiah.Based on an interview by Rahul Devulapalli with Kancha Ilaiah Shephard for The Wire Telugu.