Professor Arun Kumar, who has researched extensively on the black economy in India, discusses demonetisation and the upcoming Union Budget.
Far from the UBI schemes proposed in advanced economies, in India it’s a question of whether the Centre can juggle its finances and find a better way of delivering welfare.
After demonetisation, investors and those within the BJP intellectual community are confused: Will Modi take a socialist path or will he stick to being a market-friendly prime minister?
In an interview with The Wire, the former central banker talks on the infeasibility of executing demonetisation while raising concerns over re-starting the working capital cycle of small and medium businesses.
The prime minister could use the president’s suggestion that the poor need immediate relief after demonetisation, unveil radical measures in the upcoming budget and leave the Opposition speechless.
Is finance minister Arun Jaitley budgeting in the dark? One can’t have a strategy for economic revival without first estimating the economic impact of demonetisation.
Smaller informal economy players have totally lost out in this bizarre game, when they sold their currency at a discount only to help hawala dealers and middlemen make huge profits.
The prime minister’s words will be meaningless, other than to draw attention to Rahul Gandhi’s cause, unless he supports them with actions to reform political funding.
Strong leaders often get buoyed by the self-belief that they can create a top down narrative even if something quite different is happening on the ground.
By avoiding questions on when the situation will normalise and suggesting that the growth forecast doesn’t take into account the transitory impact of demonetisation, Urijit Patel is shunning responsibility.
Did the government count its chickens before they hatched? Demonetisation as a means of extinguishing black money may be a pipe dream now.
An equity firm has estimated that GDP growth will crash to 0.5% in the second half of the current financial year.
The Centre is effectively saying it wants a cashless economy for the millions who survive in an honest cash economy. The dishonest cash economy controlled by big business is allowed to continue and thrive.
The decision to put on hold the ban on NDTV India is a threat only half withdrawn because of the nationwide protests. The Modi government continues to create a toxic discourse around national security with the idea of nibbling at various freedoms guaranteed under the constitution.
While Ratan Tata was allegedly unhappy with Mistry’s handing of government and regulatory affairs, the larger investing community did not have a problem with the former chairman’s conservative approach.
If India’s diplomatic objective is to economically punish the Chinese for their support to Pakistan, then it is being done in a deeply flawed and ham-handed manner.
The politicisation of national security comes from Narendra Modi’s desire to be projected as India’s Rambo prime minister.
The BJP could see this as a godsend because its position in UP has been steadily slipping over the past year or so primarily because of rural and agriculture distress caused by two back-to-back droughts.
While questions over America’s persistently high current account deficit remain, Trump’s economic revival plan misdiagnoses the problem and wrongly ignores global market logic.
If Jio’s cutthroat disruption eventually leads to the dominance of just one or two players, it may not be good for consumers in the longer run.
The negative growth in overall investment in April-June also knocks the bottom out of the government’s oft repeated claims that India is attracting unprecedented FDI flows because of new policy measures.
The BJP may be inclined to fuel hyper Hindu nationalist sentiment by making Pakistan a villain during the UP election campaign. To prove himself a true statesmen, the prime minister must fight this temptation.
The Valley is witnessing an unprecedented spell of protest and violence, which is unlikely to abate unless the BJP-led Centre embarks on an earnest effort to resolve the core issue of Kashmir’s autonomy as envisaged in the constitution.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Independence Day speech from the ramparts of the Red Fort was both tedious and tiring.
Reliance Jio clearly wants to disrupt the market. But the question is whether such disruption will happen in a fair manner where no special advantage accrues to any one player.
The RSS has tried to assimilate the Dalit community as part of its Hindu consolidation project, but as the recent aggressive gau raksha activism shows, its plans may be coming undone
A poorly implemented GST could be politically counter-productive. Which is why we should not treat it as a panacea, but as an instrument that may have to be refined in the coming years.
The court’s rejection of the recent use of Article 356 is a reminder that there is no alternative to strictly adhering to the constitutionally laid down procedures.
With the re-calibration of economic globalisation, there may not be any merit, per se, in being the “most open economy in the world”.
The cabinet expansion reflects caste calculations to fix emerging weaknesses in Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan. It hardly has anything to do with merit even as there is consensus that the cabinet suffers from a considerable talent deficit.
The Centre is wrong in assuming that Rajan’s exit will make things easy. The institutional integrity of India’s central bank is at stake.
Britain’s EU exit negotiations will have huge implications for India, which has captured the benefit of low cost production across the world.
The RBI governor’s no-nonsense attitude in dealing with debt default did not go down well with the big business interests, leaving the political class feeling uncomfortable and insecure.
Rajan’s extension seems imminent because the global opinion appears to suggest that an extension to the RBI governor’s tenure would provide much needed stability to the domestic financial system.
The party high command has perfected the art of blowing hot and cold with opposition leaders based on their current usefulness. The most glaring example of this, of course, is the way the Gandhi family has been targeted.
Narendra Modi should have shown more sensitivity by announcing that the Centre would not celebrate the achievements of the government until the condition of the 350 million people affected by the drought improved.
Although the Congress today is in no position to coherently challenge the BJP, a small event can galvanise the party.
Given the results of the assembly polls, the collective role of regional parties will become more important in national politics as the country approaches the 2019 general election.
The most vocal campaigner is Rajya Sabha MP Subramaniam Swamy who has publicly said Raghuram Rajan must be removed
The Uttarakhand episode is an object lesson for the BJP leadership, especially Prime Minister Narendra Modi and party President Amit Shah