The recent announcement of the Indo-US trade deal has sparked much concern in the agrarian field. This is mainly because there appears to be two versions when it comes to agriculture. First, the Union government’s version claiming “Indian agriculture and dairy” are protected under the recent trade deal. The second version is the US counterpart’s, which has been saying that it will now send in “more farm products to India’s market, [thus] lifting prices, and pumping cash into rural America.” This is a significant moment in Indian agriculture, because if the US has its way, India’s agrarian protections will finally have been dismantled after what the ministry appears to call a “calibrated opening of Indian agriculture”Keep in mind that it is not just agriculture that our government is gambling on in this trade deal-FTA roulette, it is risking the lifeline of our civilisation and the livelihoods of 600 million Indians for US corporate profits. Calibrated opening of agriculture So let us begin with the government’s promise – doubling farmers incomes, which was the “liberalisation” agenda for agriculture in India. During COVID-19, our current regime tried to bring the vision to “liberalise Indian agriculture” from “middlemen” into legislation and introduced the three contentious farm laws. The government had hoped to “liberalise” or privatise and “open up” agriculture, and provide more market access for producers and corporations. The farmers quickly grasped the government’s intentions and began massive protests against the government and tycoons “Ambani and Adani”. Farmer leaders also claimed that US corporations like “Walmart and Cargill” were the key drivers for this step. After the 13-month long blockade in which 750 farmers reportedly died, the laws were rescinded. But our regime’s intention of opening up India’s agriculture sector did not die. As the subsequent bustle around the farm laws was completely extinguished with later police evictions at the Shambu and Kinnaur borders, the movement was weakened. Meanwhile the government started to open doors to allow foreign corporations to enter India. The pivotal shift began with the seed sector in 2022. Foreign seed companies can now be registered at par with Indian companies and will have access to Indian germplasm – genetic resources – without needing prior approval by National Biodiversity Authority. Earlier, to prevent stealing, foreign firms needed prior approval before using Indian germplasm. This amendment of the National Biodiversity Act was spearheaded ostensibly to increase the ease of doing business for foreign corporations.Was this liberalisation of the seed sector needed? India does not allow for patenting of seeds and life forms. But many other countries allow for intellectual property rights through patents on seeds too. In the past, foreign corporations have stolen Indian germplasm, grown plants in their home countries, and then tried to get a patent on the plant. This illegal transfer of seeds, life forms, and indigenous knowledge for private profit goes against international biodiversity laws and is called biopiracy. Foreign corporations have tried to patent Indian plants and seeds like neem, Basmati rice, turmeric and Darjeeling tea in the past. So it is clear that opening our native germplasm to foreign corporations is not really the fairest step and is akin to paving the way for biopiracy.Furthermore, in the run up to the US trade deal, India, at the International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resource on Food and Agriculture (ITPGFRA), appears to have surrendered its vast reserves of seed diversity for use of foreign corporations. Next came the Seed Bill 2025 which was called out by the Samyukta Kisan morcha (SKM) leaders who said the “bill surrendered the seed sovereignty of India and it is aimed at predatory pricing by corporate monopolies.”Also read: ‘Major Blow to Horticulture Industry’: Apple Growers in J&K, Himachal Sound Alarm Over India-US Trade DealThe next wave of privatisation came with the historic model of public-private partnerships. The government, while decreasing research and development funds annually for public agricultural institutions, like the ICAR-Agricultural Technology Application Research Institute, is allowing corporations like Bayer access to our public agrarian systems. Handling everything from spices and pomegranates, to agri-inputs, and creating mobile platforms for farmers for rice and wheat, Bayer is the example of one a gigantic transnational agri-chemical corporation profiting from the demise of India’s public agriculture research. Remember that the American corporation Monsanto and German Bayer are now one company, and Monsanto/Bayer is not alone in this great game to monopolise Indian agriculture. Foreign giants like Amazon, and Microsoft have also been given access to our agriculture policy making with little information on the extent of their involvement in the government’s ambitious agristack ecosystem. We cannot forget the personal access and influence that was given to Bill Gates and his Bill and Melina Gates foundation. They have made multiple trips to the various agrarian institutions under the current regime, despite civil society groups’ protests against this new friendship. The high privatisation and technological impulses of the Modi government towards AI- and information-based high-tech agriculture may very well carry a Bill Gates imprint. This move has further signalled to foreign investors that India is pliable and open for business. Besides, the NITI Aayog has always championed the cause of corporatisation and liberalisation of agriculture in its many research papers. The great gameWhile the Narendra Modi government was silently changing legislations and policy to prepare for the corporate reintegration of Indian agriculture, Trump played a big move – the trade wars. Trump imposed upto 50% tariffs on Indian agrarian produce, hoping that India will bend the knee and accept American farm produce and reject Russian oil. After the agri-trade war with China ended poorly for Trump, he was desperately looking for newer markets for American agri produce. Despite assurances, India had hoped to get a concession from the US started by slashing import duty on cotton to zero last year. After months of negotiations it is reported that “vast array” of American farm produce – from sorghum to cotton, apples to tree-nuts, barring genetically modified foods, dairy and some other minor items, will freely enter Indian markets with zero import tariffs or highly reduced tariffs . More details are awaited. Meanwhile Indian agri-produce reaching the USA will be tariffed at 18%. The Indian government cannot even cushion the tariffs imposed on our agri-exports to the US. We don’t know if the Indian government can guarantee that India will not be forced to accept more US government-subsidised American farm surpluses in the coming years.While Indians are being shackled and deported under the Trump government, India has also pledged to add $500 billion dollars in the next five years into the US economy, bringing India into about a $40-billion trade deficit with the US. Farm groups are already protesting this step as the US provides 100% subsidies to its farmers, thus making the agri-dumping easier and turning the domestic market into a graveyard for domestic producers. US farmers receive income support alongside a bunch of other forms of financial support. Along with those in the European Union, US farmers are guarded by a strong and cloistered policy. This is why, Trump, aligned with this protectionist view, has been keen to impose heavy tariffs on agri-produce too. These nations even provide export subsidies and oftentimes use their geopolitical strength to almost bully countries to accept US or EU agri goods. An agri-deal has been on the agenda for almost all US presidential visits to India. But was the USA given special treatment? Of course. But if we analyse the Indo-EU free trade agreement (FTA), we begin to see not a unique case, but rather a “disastrous” paradigm shift. Previously, the Indian state has tried to protect her farmers, thus risking the ire of the World Trade Organisation, but the new mode of negotiations are opening up the Indian agriculture market to foreign players bit by bit. Like with the US, India has opened its markets for agrarian surplus from the EU by slashing tariffs across the categories. This step naturally gives more advantage to European companies like Bayer, Glencore, etc. who already have much control of the Indian markets and make multilateral agreements like WTO redundant. One may also ask, what about India’s agri-produce reaching the US or EU – that could be to our bilateral advantage? The answer is no. Currently, India’s food system is highly contaminated with toxic agri-chemicals, packing issues and adulterations. The problem is so grave that the USDA once canceled the organic certification equivalence with India. The EU, each year, rejects multiple food shipments including rice and spices from India and it will be a long time before Indian farmers’ can upgrade to adopt more sustainable agri-chemicals or farming techniques. It now looks like a one way agri-import street from the EU and the US. Concluding from the events before us, it is clear that the current regime has primed Indian agriculture for a corporate takeover. The US and EU have both used geopolitical pressures to push harder, and we have opened the gates to our agricultural markets. Sadly, it is only a matter of time before cheap imports flood our market, farm incomes plummet further, and foreign corporations profit from India’s hunger. Indra Shekhar Singh is an independent agri-policy analyst and writer.