Despite the government’s assurances that fertiliser supply is adequate for the kharif season, farmers across the country are not convinced. The fertiliser shortage scare is growing among farmers as fertilisers prices are already up by 50%.Indian farmers still have a bad taste in their mouth when comes to the Modi government’s management of fertiliser supplies last year, when despite the government saying there were “no shortages”, there was a nation-wide fertiliser shortage; farmer protests or distress were reported in key agrarian states including Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Telangana and Madhya Pradesh.But unlike last year, news of the war against Iran and its counter-attacks on GCC countries including Qatar as well as its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is flashing on every farmer’s mobile screen, and the panic is for real.Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty.Global prices of urea have risen 50% to $720 per tonne and ammonia to $600 per tonne, whereas experts are pointing to an increase in prices of complex fertilisers like di-ammonium phosphate (DAP), forecasting that they could imminently rise to $1,000 per tonne (FOB), and likewise for urea in the long term.In the past few years, fertiliser prices have sharply risen due to the Ukraine war. The US’s one-sided sanctions on Russia bled farmers and agrarian production in India and the world as instability in the Black Sea disrupted critical agri-chemical exports from Russia. Urea, potash (muriate of potash), phosphorus-containing fertilisers and various NPK formulations are major agri-chemical fertiliser exports from Russia to India and the world. High prices and delays in fertiliser supply dampened production in many countries previously.Compounding the ongoing fertiliser crisis is the Iran war, which has seen Qatar’s and the world’s biggest LNG plant suffering heavy damage. The gas company has invoked force majeure for the next five years and shut down production. This step directly threatens 17% of the country’s LNG supply, which in turn accounts for 20% of global supply.This has led to panic-buying and a sharp increase in fertiliser prices. What makes the situation more dangerous is that the Yemeni Houthi forces have threatened to join the war on Iran’s side and potentially block the Red Sea routes too.The South Pars gas field is Iran’s primary source of domestic gas supply, producing about 80% of its natural gas requirements. Israel has also attacked South Pars, which is creating chaos in the gas economy. Tehran has also warned of more attacks if Iran’s gas and oil infrastructure is attacked.The global production capacity of LNG has dropped drastically and will continue to drop if the war goes on.The tremors are being strongly felt in India, as once again despite our government’s promise a major gas shortage crisis is looming over the country. Keeping the rising price of gas cylinders aside, many eateries across the country have shut down for want of gas. There has been an exodus of migrant labourers from Modi’s own state of Gujarat due to gas shortages, which have also led to industrial shutdowns.CNG-based transportation could be hit next because India doesn’t maintain a critical reserve of LNG.The writing on the wall is that India is in a deep gas crisis already. With India scrambling for cooking gas, imagine the state of our urea production plants that rely heavily on Gulf-origin LNG as a raw material. Naturally, production is down and without the vital raw material it could soon completely stop. Many plants in Bangladesh and Pakistan have already stopped functioning. And as a result India could lose 30-40% of food exports in the coming year due to agri-chemical shortages.And if we are bullied into buying US-origin LNG, consider this: it takes about $20 in freight and insurance alone for one tonne of LNG from the Gulf and $80 in freight and insurance – only for one tonne – from the US, per one estimate. The timing also drastically increases from eight to ten days to 45 to 60 days for a ship to arrive.With a fertiliser crisis also emerging in the US, the latter like China may begin to curb exports of fertilisers and critical LNG, which is vital for urea production.So should we be prepared for a global food crisis ahead? It seems like Trump has once again made US farmers the ‘collateral’ of his foreign policy. The US imports 25% of its total fertiliser use, including 18% of its nitrogen fertiliser like urea use, as per the American Farm Bureau. Much of it is routed through the Gulf countries.Keep in mind that reportedly, 35% of global urea comes from the Gulf region and 20% of phosphate from Saudi Arabia alone, while Russia also contributes a big share to the world’s agri-chemical fertiliser supply and is no friend of the US.Hence, as the corn planting season is beginning in the US, urea prices have risen by 70% when compared over a 90-day period in many places in the countryside. Tennessee farmers saw their bill rise by 40% and fear is that many farmers won’t even find fertilisers for sowing a variety of crops from soyabean to corn.Consider the corn-nomics now. Fertiliser accounts for 20% of the total cost in GM corn production. Rising fertiliser costs means higher corn and ethanol costs in the US, eating away US farmers’ incomes as most of them farm on corporate contracts with predefined harvest rates. Rising input costs will eat into their margins. All crops in the US will face a similar fate.The US is not alone: fertiliser prices from Brazil to Egypt to India are spiking and reports are already pointing to global food security concerns.If the Iran war doesn’t enter a ceasefire, soon the world – especially agrarian countries – will run out of fossil fuel and agri-chemical reserves. Countries such as Russia, China and a few others will have the upper hand and most likely decide the agrarian fate of countries because they will be the only source of fossil fuels and agri-chemicals.Farmers need to brace themselves for higher prices in lucky circumstances; the non-availability of agri-chemical fertilisers for countries not aligned with Russia and China is the worst case scenario.As far as India is concerned, the Modi government has failed Indian farmers and our agrarian economy by literally breaking away from BRICS partners like Russia, Iran and China under US pressure.The Americans are over-charging us for fossil fuels and gas shipments, whereas mismanaged diplomacy has erased all possibilities of discounts from Russia or Iran. The Union government is once again running towards Russia and Russia-allied Belarus for fertiliser imports, willing to pay top dollar for it, draining our economy further.Impact on kharifFirst of all, food is going to become expensive and scarce. Conservatively, we could see a 20-30% increase in food prices simply because of the rising price of fossil fuels, fossil fuel-derived agri-chemicals fertilisers like urea and DAP, and agri-chemical pesticides.Due to the limited or non-availability of fossil fuels like LNG and diesel, which are critical for kharif sowing, from agri-chemical production to the transportation of agri-inputs and harvests, all will suffer.Pesticides, which will be critical in a Super El Niño year, are also predicted to rise by 25% due to the Iran war. If farmers use fewer agri-chemicals, harvests will be down, deeply impacting food supplies.So how will this play out for the 800 million Indians that depend on the government’s food ration programme? Will India be able to produce enough food to feed everyone?The second question is naturally about our strategic food reserves: will we again be overdrawing from them, and what’s our plan to refill them? Given the war situation, the blockade could extend for many months, drying up agri-chemical and fossil fuel supplies and permanently damaging industrial agricultural production.On the swadeshi side of things, despite being voted to power on a nationalist agenda, our government has failed to galvanise organic or indigenous Vedic methods of farming. Thousands of crores have been lost in the past decade through the Pradhan Mantri Paramparagat Krishi Vikas Yojana, yet India’s natural farming capabilities are poor and Indian farmers still depend on foreign agri-input imports. Not a single Vedic or indigenous government-run agricultural research institute exists in the country.Meanwhile, the Modi government has been busy courting the Epstein-linked Bill Gates to be the lodestar of agrarian ideas and policy.No attempts are made to create urea through bio-CNG despite the government having a cow-focused agenda.In short, our government has primed us for failure, and deploys PR tricks and censorship to further distract us while the Indian food and farm economy runs into ruin.Indra Shekhar Singh is an independent agri-policy analyst and writer.This piece was first published on The India Cable – a premium newsletter from The Wire – and has been updated and republished here. To subscribe to The India Cable, click here.