The mercury has begun to rise across the country, accompanied by stormy and erratic rainfall. From Kashmir to the Western Ghats, India has been reporting unusually high March temperatures. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has already issued heatwave alerts and warned citizens to prepare for extreme heat as well as the effects of Western disturbances. What does this rapidly changing climate mean for our agriculture and food security?Let us begin with the northern regions. The Himalayan areas of Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh have witnessed a snow drought this winter, meaning they received very little snowfall. This has led to higher-than-usual temperatures. These regions are primarily horticultural zones producing fruits such as apples, cherries and pears. Without adequate snowfall, the apple trees do not receive the required “chill period” for healthy growth.Warmer temperatures place fruit trees under stress, affecting both yield and quality. They also become more vulnerable to pests and diseases and may exhibit irregular growth. This year, apple growers in Kashmir are reporting unusually early budding, and not for the first time, which could adversely affect the Rs 10,000 crore local apple economy. Himachal Pradesh faces similar risks, with potential losses to its Rs 5,000 crore apple economy, estimated by scientists for this state alone.Apple varieties grown in the mid-hills of Himachal typically require between 500 and 1,000 chilling hours, while stone fruits such as peaches and plums need about 500 to 800 hours for proper fruiting.The problem is compounded by high temperatures bringing stormy winds, rain and hail, which can lead to up to 30% fruit loss. In the plains too, rain and hail have been reported across north and central India. Much of the mango crop is currently in the flowering stage, making it highly vulnerable. Hail and storms can damage delicate flowers and young fruit. Uttar Pradesh, which produces around 24 million tonnes of mangoes, faced similar conditions last year, making crops more susceptible to pests and diseases.In 2023, untimely rain, strong winds and hail, which made the crop vulnerable to pests and diseases, led to a loss of nearly 20% of India’s mango production.In 2025, mango belts from Uttar Pradesh to Maharashtra again reported significant damage due to untimely rain, affecting exports and farmers’ incomes. Erratic rainfall has emerged as a major disruptor of mango production. If such weather continues in key regions such as Uttar Pradesh, Malda, Karnataka and elsewhere, India could again lose up to 20% of its mango crop, pushing prices higher. In the Konkan region, mango and cashew farmers are already reporting losses of up to 90%.The impact is not limited to fruit crops. Warmer temperatures also threaten rabi crops such as wheat and maize, especially in northern India. Due to excessive rainfall and fertiliser shortages, many farmers delayed sowing, with some planting wheat as late as December. Wheat and maize require relatively cooler conditions, and heat stress can affect grain formation, often leading to poor or abnormal development.Since 2022, wheat production in India has been dampened by rising temperatures. The year 2023 was also unfavourable, with India reportedly losing 15-20% of production in Punjab and Haryana. As a result, wheat exports have been restricted since 2022 to stabilise domestic supply. Heatwaves remain a serious concern for food security, and this year too farmers in Punjab are reporting crop damage.In early March 2026, farmers noted that heat stress was affecting grain quality, turning the wheat kernel violet, and on March 15 Punjab received 408% excess rainfall, further damaging standing crops.Western disturbances originating from the Mediterranean are expected to bring rainfall and hail to large parts of the country, including the western Himalayan region, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Odisha, Bihar and Telangana. This is harmful for both standing crops and recently harvested produce left in the fields. Uttar Pradesh has already reported significant losses in wheat and mustard across 25 districts, including Gonda, Shravasti and Barabanki.Mustard, maise and other rabi crops have also been affected in these regions. It would be prudent for India to prepare for losses of around 10% in these crops, especially if another spell of similar weather occurs around March 24.Also read: ‘Major Blow to Horticulture Industry’: Apple Growers in J&K, Himachal Sound Alarm Over India-US Trade DealSuch conditions also increase the likelihood of pest attacks and crop diseases, leading to both pre-harvest and post-harvest losses. Farmers may need to spend more on pesticides and fertilisers, costs that are ultimately passed on to consumers. This could lead to higher prices for staples and fruits, contributing to food inflation.Rising temperatures are also altering atmospheric conditions over the Indian mainland, drawing in moisture-laden winds. This may have implications for the monsoon, potentially weakening its flow.There are additional concerns. Scientists are warning of a possible Super El Niño developing in the Pacific Ocean. A Super El Niño occurs when ocean warming becomes particularly intense, typically exceeding 2.0 degrees Centigrade above average. Such conditions can disrupt global weather patterns, increasing the likelihood of droughts in regions such as India and Australia, as well as floods, stronger storms and heatwaves. There have been three such major events in the past, each associated with significant climatic disruption.This creates uncertainty for farmers whose sowing season falls during the transition period between rabi and kharif from April to July. Higher temperatures will increase water requirements, and extreme heat may affect seed performance and crop yields. Kharif production could also be impacted if monsoon patterns are disrupted. There is a need to prepare for a prolonged summer and a potentially weaker monsoon.In this situation, the government must strengthen climate warning systems and help farmers plan sowing more effectively. Multi-cropping should be encouraged instead of monoculture practices. Irrigation infrastructure needs urgent attention to address existing gaps. Demand for fertilisers and agro-chemicals may increase due to changing pest patterns and disease risks.Crop insurance schemes must also be overhauled and strengthened to address these imminent challenges. The government should actively ensure adequate procurement of staple crops to maintain strategic food reserves. If not managed carefully, India may be forced to rely on food imports from the US, which would adversely affect domestic agriculture and farmers’ livelihoods.Indra Shekhar Singh is an independent agri-policy analyst and writer.