The war declared by Israel and the United States against Iran, and its escalation, signal nothing less than Armageddon, and not just for the petro-dollar, but on global food security and agricultural production. One of several far-reaching impacts on India and other countries could soon be inflation, even hyper-inflation. The prices of chemical fertilisers such as urea, fossil fuels that form the power backbone of irrigated fields, critical minerals like sulphur, phosphate, and many other primary and secondary goods, face major impact. The politics behind this crisis is one thing – the situation for farmers is yet another layer atop that one. The ongoing strikes have been aimed at major oil and gas facilities in Iran and the Gulf region, disrupting oil and gas supplies as well as production from the world’s major sources of fossil fuels. Oil and natural gas facilities in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Oman, Iran and Qatar to Israel are affected. The consequences are already revealing themselves as profound. A facility in Saudi Arabia, alone responsible for 12% of global production, and another in Qatar, have had to completely shut down the liquefaction of gas. Qatar produces 20% of the global Liqified Natural Gas (LNG). The entire oil and gas economy has been pounded on the production side. A Qatari minister has said crude prices could cross USD 150 a barrel.The secondary disruption, from the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil passes, has left hundreds of ships stranded in the Persian Gulf, awaiting safe passage. Global trade and commerce have drastically slowed. Shipping and insurances rates have spiked, and are yet to find a roof. In the high-risk situation, many cargo ships are also stranded, reducing the overall availability of ships even on alternative routes.Reports say the next round of strikes – which has already started – will target floating infrastructure on seas. Water desalination plants across the Gulf are at risk from Iran’s retaliatory strikes. About 60% of the world’s desalination infrastructure is installed in these parts and the Gulf countries rely heavily on them for water supply. So how do these events influence agriculture and food security? It begins from the agri-chemicals. The world’s biggest single unit urea production facility, in Qatar, has had to stop production. Other factories in the region are also experiencing reduced or no production. This is particularly alarming for India, as 60% of our LNG comes from Qatar. And a large proportion of it goes to urea producation factories in India, which feeds farms and fields across the country. Reports are already pointing towards a fertilisers shortage this kharif season.India’s agri-chemical fertiliser industry roughly produces 2.5 million tonnes of urea per month, and even if by some stroke of luck it is able to access adequate LNG supplies, given the soaring prices, the exchequer will be depleted by exponentially rising costs. Besides, trouble is not brewing in just the Gulf and Persian peninsula region. Russian President Vladimir Putin recently declared he might stop gas supplies to the European Union due to the war, and that reportedly sent gas prices jumping by 10% on European exchanges. The ripple of the gas prices is being felt in India too: Indian consumers will have to pay an additional Rs 60 for domestic cooking gas cylinders.Thrid, between 2020 and 2025, India reportedly imported 49% of its urea fertilisers from the Gulf region. In 2025 alone, the import bill was USD 3.7 billion for fertilisers from the region. Mixed fertilisers (Nitrogen-Phosphorus-Kalium or NPK) accounted for USD 2.2 billion (31.1% of the imports), while nitrogen fertiliser imports totalled USD 1.5 billion (30.3%).If the war continues, Indian farmers could be staring at very low chemical fertiliser supply and Indian tax-payers a bigger fertiliser subsidy bill. Last year, farmers protested over severe shortages of fertiliser. Expect a repeat of that crisis, with urea fertilisers likely to cost much more again. Rising fossil fuel prices will be the second driver of severe input cost inflation for the agrarian sector. Indian farmers and the food economy, from its tractors to diesel irrigation pumps to food trucks – heavily depend on diesel. The war and the US sanctions on India will together push up diesel prices – oil prices are already at USD 93 a barrel. This could raise the cost of food production and distribution, eventually making our thalis more expensive. Similarly, India is a major importer of sulphur from the Gulf region, and that is another trade deeply affected by the crisis. Sulphur is used in many sectors, from textiles to agriculture, as a raw ingredient. Limestone and gypsum imports from the region will also be impacted. Phosphate, another important agri-mineral, which is supplied from Morocco via the Suez Canal route, will see higher landing rates due to the closure of the Persian Gulf. All of it will compound India’s inflation, unless the hostilites end soon. Many reports indicate a global food scare resulting from the conflict in West Asia. About 60,000 tonnes of Basmati rice destined for the Gulf, a major destination for Indian imports from rice to tea, are stuck in Indian ports. As one of the biggest exporters of rice, if Indian exports are shackled at bay, it could trigger a shortages in other parts of the world. On the other hand, if shipping lanes remain blocked for longer, our record rice production of kharif 2025 might mean oversupply. From tea to spices, exports will be affected and over-supply could drive prices lower, affecting farmers, small and medium processors and consumers. Furthermore, if India or other countries are forced to accept more US agri-imports, it could prove catastrophic for the domestic food economy. Indra Shekhar Singh is an independent agri-policy analyst and writer.