New Delhi: If exit polls are to be believed, Assam, Tamil Nadu and Kerala have voted for change – giving the BJP its first government in the northeastern state and dislodging Congress, which is set to lose Kerala to the Left, while the DMK-Congress alliance is set to regain power in Tamil Nadu, defeating the AIADMK.
The exit polls indicate that only West Bengal has bucked the anti-incumbency trend by re-electing the Trinamool Congress led by chief minister Mamata Banerjee, who manages to hold on to power by defeating the Left-Congress alliance convincingly to win a second consecutive term..
The Congress can take solace from its projected victory in the tiny Union Territory of Puducherry where it is likely to come to power in alliance with the DMK, apart from being part of the DMK-led coalition that looks set to win power in Tamil Nadu.
The exit poll results were released at the end of polling in Tamil Nadu and Kerala today, marking the closure of voting in four states and Puducherry. Counting of votes will take place on May 19.
Assam: Advantage BJP seen
In Assam, where the BJP has high stakes, indications are that it could get its maiden government with the India Today-Axis-My India polls giving the saffron alliance 79-93 seats in a house of 126. The Congress has been projected to get 26-33 while AIUDF headed by Badruddin Ajmal is set to get 6-10 seats. ‘Others’ can get 1 to 4 seats.
The ABP Ananda poll gave the BJP alliance 81 seats, Congress 33, AIUDF 10 and others 5. Times Now C Voter projected BJP to get 57 seats and Congress 41 while AIUDF and others are set to get 18 and 10 respectively. Today’s Chanakya gave BJP an overwhelming 90 seats against Congress’ 27 and AIUDF 9.
In the outgoing Assembly in Assam, the Congress had 78 seats while the BJP had only 5. AIUDF had 18 seats while current BJP allies Bodo People’s Front (BPF) and AGP had 12 and 10 seats respectively.
Tamil Nadu: Setback predicted for Jayalalithaa
Projecting a defeat for the Jayalalithaa-led AIADMK in Tamil Nadu, exit polls have given the DMK-Congress alliance a comfortable majority in the 234 member assembly.
The India Today-My Axis-India polls survey gave DMK and allies 124 to 140 seats and AIADMK 89 to 101, while ‘others’ 4 to 11. The News Nation poll handed over 114 to 118 seats to the DMK front, 95-99 for the AIADMK, BJP – 4 and ‘others’ 23. Today’s Chanakya gave 140 to DMK-Congress alliance, 90 to AIADMK and 4 to Progressive Welfare Front (PWF) headed by Vijaykanth and ‘others’. However, C-Voter predicted an AIADMK victory giving it 139 seats, 78 for DMK alliance, 0 for BJP and 17 for ‘others’.
In the current assembly, the AIDMK had 150 members while DMK had 23. The DMDK had 29 and the Congress 5.
Kerala: Left set to oust Congress
In Kerala, the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) will wrest power from Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) maintaining the trend of change in every election, exit polls indicate.
The poll on India TV showed the LDF getting 74 to 82 against the UDF’s 54 to 62. The BJP and ‘others’ are projected to get 4 seats each. The India Today-Axis polls gave 88 to 101 seats for LDF and 38 to 48 for UDF. The BJP may get upto 3 seats.
C-Voter has predicted 78 for the LDF, 58 for the UDF and 2 for BJP.
In the last elections, the UDF had 72 seats and the LDF 68.
No parivartan likely in West Bengal
All the exit polls show West Bengal opting for the status quo. The ABP Ananda poll gave the ruling TMC 178 seats, 6 less than what it got in the last election. The Left-Congress alliance has been predicted to get 110 seats against 103 it had won in the previous election. But in the last election, the Congress and TMC had an alliance. The India Today-Axis My India has projected a landslide victory of 233 to 253 seats for the TMC in a House of 294 while the Left-Congress alliance is tipped to get only 38 to 51. The BJP and ‘others’ have been projected to get upto 5 seats each.
Times Now-C Voter gave 167 seats to TMC, the Left parties 75 and Congress 45. It gave 4 to BJP and 3 to ‘others’.
Today’s Chanakya gave upto 210 to TMC, while it gave 70 to Left-Congress combine and 14 to BJP.
Puducherry the sole glimmer of light for Congress
In Puducherry, the Congress-DMK alliance has been projected to get 15-21 seats in the 30 member assembly. The AIADMK is tipped to get 1-4 while the ruling All India N R Congress, led by chief minister N. Rangaswamy, is likely to get 8 to 12 and others upto 2, according to the India Today-Axis My India poll.
India TV C voter predicted the Congress DMK combine getting 10 to 18 seats while the AINRC could get 5-13. AIADMK is likely to get 1-9, BJP upto 2 and others 0 to 4.
In the outgoing house, the AIRNC had 15 while the Congress had 7, AIADMK 5, DMK 2 and an independent one seat.
With inputs from PTI