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Is the Narendra Modi Bubble About to Burst?

Three almost simultaneous developments, each of which would normally have dented the government’s image in only minor ways, show how Modi’s image is beginning to lose its shine.

Narendra Modi. Credit: pmoindia.gov.in

Narendra Modi. Credit: pmoindia.gov.in

Why has Prime Minister Narendra Modi gone in for such a sweeping cabinet reshuffle now? The short answer is a growing anxiety within the Sangh parivar, voiced recently in the context of agriculture by the RSS, that the BJP’s honeymoon with the electorate, the longest that any government has ever enjoyed, may be coming to an end.

For three years, Modi’s political star has been ascending. India’s new middle class has been singing his praises, NRIs have put up altars dedicated to him in their homes abroad, even leaders in the opposition have begun to wonder whether their interests will not be better served if they join the bandwagon, rather than risk being run over by it. Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar, once the tallest among his opponents, has already chosen the safer course.

Modi has achieved his larger-than-life stature by making a succession of promises to the people and a media blitz that has no precedent in Indian politics. Whenever you look and wherever you go, televisions screens flash his image every few minutes, announcing a new programme or welfare scheme, or admonishing Indians to take part in schemes already announced. The central government’s advertisement budget for “welfare schemes” this year is a mammoth Rs 1,153 crores, Rs 200 crore more than last year. And there is hardly a single advertisement that does not centre around Modi.

This TV blitz is supplemented by a saturation of cyberspace with praise and propaganda for Modi and the BJP, and denigration of all those who find fault with his policies. The combined onslaught has stupefied the ordinary Indian and discouraged the opposition to the point where every effort by it to build a common platform against the BJP has foundered on the unspoken belief that the effort is pointless because Modi is bound to win the 2019 elections.

Modi’s Achilles’ heel

But larger-than-life images also have larger-than-life Achilles’ heels. Three almost-simultaneous developments, each of which would normally have dented the government’s image in only minor ways, show how Modi’s image is beginning to lose its shine. The first is the unconditional Indian withdrawal from the Doklam plateau; the second is the news that 99% of the bank notes demonetised on November 8 have been exchanged for new notes; the third is the decline in GDP growth to a three-year low of 5.7% in the April-June quarter of 2017-18.

Coming on top of two train accidents in four days that have killed more than 20 and injured close to 200 passengers, and the death of 67 children in a single hospital in Gorakhpur, home of Adityanath, reportedly for want of something as basic as oxygen, these setbacks have stripped the Sangh parivar’s “New India” of much of its gloss. The frenzy of denials and rebuttals that has followed each of the three events reveals the government’s awareness of the softening of the ground beneath its feet.

Stripped to its essence, India’s vacation of the Doklam plateau is an unconditional acceptance of China’s precondition for the avoidance of conflict and the resumption of normal diplomatic relations. Modi’s propagandists could easily have portrayed this as a display of good sense and moderation by both sides. But they have described it as a ‘big win’ for India and a diplomatic setback for China.

Since our TV channels have lapped it up without a word of skepticism, Beijing has been forced to disclose that, contrary to the impression it is creating, China has made no real reciprocal concession to India. Hua Chunying, the Chinese Foreign Office spokesperson made this crystal clear by stating, “Chinese border troops continue to be stationed (in) and patrol (the area)”. About the road she said that China “will take into consideration all factors, including weather, to make relevant construction plans according to situations on ground (emphasis added).”

Narendra Modi at Rajghat on August 15, 2017. Credit: pmoindia.gov.in

Narendra Modi at Rajghat on August 15, 2017. Credit: pmoindia.gov.in

Her reference to the weather is the only hint China will not restart the road building this year. And by ‘all factors’ she may have implied that the resumption of construction could depend upon the state of Sino-Indian relations eight months from now. The Indian public is not well versed in deciphering diplomatic language. But the perception that Doklam was at best a losing draw is bound to sink in over time.

In a similar vein, had the Modi government been less nervous, it could have claimed that the return of 99% of the demonetised currency notes is an indication of the success and not failure of demonetisation. For it shows that large numbers of tax evaders have preferred to deposit their money in banks and pay the penalty, rather than lose their money altogether. The true measure of success, it could have asserted, is not the currency that did not return but the sudden increase of money in peoples’ bank accounts that has taken place since then.

As finance minister Arun Jaitley pointed out last week, this has been substantial. But the problem with putting this forward now is that it would be not the first, but the eleventh justification for demonetisation that the government would be presenting. It would therefore strengthen the suspicion that when Modi announced demonetisation personally last November, he did not really know what he was doing and that his advisers have been cobbling justifications together ever since.

An economy in crisis

The news that the GDP only grew by 5.7% in the first quarter, against 7.9% in the same quarter of the previous year, could not therefore have come at a worse time. The government has ascribed this to the sharp drop in manufacturing growth from 10.7% last year to a measly 1.2% in the first quarter of this year. But the real explanation is that the growth last year, and in fact the whole of the economic revival that the government claims is now beginning, is a statistical illusion created by the measurement of manufacturing growth by value added and not physical output.

Value added is physical output minus the value of consumed inputs other than labour. So it can change without any change in actual production or employment. This is what boosted estimates of growth in manufacturing in 2016-17. As the RBI’s annual report this year has pointed out, in April-June 2016, there was a windfall gain in value added because of a sharp fall in input costs. This year, by contrast, there has been a slight rise in these costs. Since sale prices of manufactured products have remained fairly steady, the whole of this change has been reflected in the fall of value added in manufacturing, and therefore the GDP.

Proof of this can be had by comparing the estimate of changes in value added and physical output during this period. In April to June 2016, manufacturing output grew by only 6.7%, against the 10.7% rise in value added. In sharp contrast, this year physical production rose by 1.8% in the same quarter, but value added rose only by 1.2%. This was because there had been a marginal rise in input costs of 0.6%.

The BJP, however, cannot use this argument because, in stark contrast to the GDP data, the index of industrial production shows growth in manufacturing actually declining from 4.8% in 2012-13, the last full year of UPA rule, to 2.8% in 2015-16 and 3.8% in 2016-17. Doing so would therefore put a very large question mark over the government’s claim to have revived economic growth in the previous three years.

Precise comparisons over a longer period of time are not possible because the Central Statistical Office changed the base for calculating the index of industrial production in 2011-12 and did not link the new estimates with the old, but at the very least, manufacturing growth has fallen  from an average of 8.6% a year between 2003-4 and 2011-12 to 3.5% between 2013-14 and 2016-17.

Coming on top of this, the drop in manufacturing growth to 1.8% in the first quarter of the current year is alarming, for it not only confirms what the government’s critics have been saying, that the hardships caused by demonetisation were not just temporary, as Modi kept reassuring the people, but likely to persist for a long time.

This has since been confirmed by a host of supplementary data, such as the onset of deflation in agriculture, which signals a sharp drop in buying power in the rural areas; the CMIE’s estimate that 1.5 million jobs were lost between December and April; the fact that for the first time in over 60 years commercial bank credit has actually contracted this year, when it rose by more than 20% a year in the Atal Bihari Vajpayee and UPA-I years; that 73% of the 300 plus respondents in FICCI’s latest survey of industry indicated that they had no intention of creating any jobs for at least the next three months, and McKinsey’s finding that more than 35% of the entire 466-million labour force of India in now underemployed, with no secure jobs and no social security.

The conclusion is inescapable: Modi has utterly failed to live up to his commitment to bring back the “ache din ( good days)” and his bubble is about to burst. Only a dramatic change in policies can prevent this, and for that he may have run out of time.

Prem Shankar Jha is a senior journalist and the author of several books including Crouching Dragon, Hidden Tiger: Can China and India Dominate the West?

  • http://socioproctology.blogspot.co.uk/ windwheel

    Oh dear. Modi’s bubble is about to burst because

    1) Jha believes Chinese propaganda because…urm… the Chinese always tell the truth- unlike those evil Hindooos of whom, notoriously, Modi is one.

    2) Voters care what third rate economists think about the effects of demonetization or how economic activity is measured. After a hard day’s work in the fields, the kisan relaxes by engaging in neo-Keynesian debate. Similarly, the mazdoor passes his leisure hours critiquing Monetarism’s epistemological foundations. Modi’s doom is sealed for sure!

    3) Jha is Yahweh. He is omniscient and, despite all evidence to the contrary, actually the bestest Economist ever. If George Soros made billions, Jha could have made trillions playing the markets and thus single-handedly ended Indian poverty. He did no such thing because he wants India to be poor.

    A guy with such great acumen and such a storied journalistic career could surely have got himself a Rajya Sabha ticket and then wowed everybody with his prophetic powers and thus ended up doing Manmohan Singh’s job in such an exemplary fashion that poor old Modi would have been booted out of politics and would have had to become a chai-wallah. But Jha wants Modi to be PM and India to remain poor. That is why he always writes and says only the stupidest thing possible at any given time. No doubt, this shows the spiritual greatness of this Miserabilist Mahatma.

    However, India has learned a way to hack Jha’s coded Jeremiads. We all now know that the truth is the opposite of whatever Jha says it is. Whatever policy prescription he offers, we must do the reverse. Modi’s reshuffle shows pragmatism is triumphing over ideology. Good Governance can’t magic away the Agricultural crisis, but it can ameliorate its effects and provide hope for better things to come. Large numbers of Indians are experiencing and will continue to experience severe problems of dislocation and uncertainty. Modi has taken necessary measures to provide the Polity with a soft landing. He must persevere down this path for all our sakes.

    • Anjan Basu

      The contempt of others implicit in such a comment is extraordinary. Mr Jha is a respected senior journalist and has written widely about India-China matters. He is not ‘omniscient’, surely — nobody but the commenter seems to be so — but the way to engage with him should be by arguing things out, not by calling him names.

      • http://socioproctology.blogspot.co.uk/ windwheel

        Full disclosure- I admired Jha as a teenager and met him in ’82 when he gave me some books to review. Thorough gentleman but no stranger to controversy.
        Jha was highly respected in the Seventies. He popularised a sort of Gramsci meets Kalecki type of analysis which I myself used briefly in the mid Eighties. However, his thought failed to develop. He never fulfilled his promise- intellectually speaking.
        A lot of people of his generation got China wrong but Jha is still a smart guy and can and should course correct.
        I guess he missed out on the Game Theoretic Revolution in the Social Sciences, but, I suppose, it was journalism of this sort which addled his brains.

    • alok asthana

      Too broadside an attack on Jha. Attack his logic, if you can. Poor show, Windwheel.

      • http://socioproctology.blogspot.co.uk/ windwheel

        Defend his logic if you can or defeat my arguments. Don’t be lazy.

        • alok asthana

          I would, if you indeed have an argument/logic. As I said, attacking the person is no argument/logic.

          • http://socioproctology.blogspot.co.uk/ windwheel

            Why don’t I believe you?

    • prem

      Windwheel’s arguments are mostly hot air. He hasn’t come up with a single cogent argument against any of the points raised by Jha

  • alok asthana

    Modi doesn’t need Doklam or demonstisation of GDP decline to flatten him. He is his own worst enemy. Guy is like Icarus, flying too close to the Sun. Though the opposition is more useless than him, NDTV and The Wire will see him off soon.

    • http://socioproctology.blogspot.co.uk/ windwheel

      Unfortunately, in politics, voters have to pick the least worst candidate. Thus Modi wins so long as ‘the opposition is more useless than him’.

  • ND0001

    Jha’s basic premise that India has withdrawn unconditionally is not only wrong but a blatant falsehood. It is a public news today that China has removed its soldiers and equipment both and stopped the road building in Doklam. It is a surprise that people like Jha still prefer to live in their fools paradise. Rest of his arguments are also a twisted and perverted logic. Everybody with a sane mind is agreeing today that 99 percent return of money in the banks does not mean that it has become a white money. All the govt and BJP spokespersons have mentioned this as a matter of simple fact, but Jha seems to be oblivious to all this.

  • http://socioproctology.blogspot.co.uk/ windwheel

    Indians, like other people, vote for the best candidate on offer. How do they decide which candidate is best? The answer is they make a judgment as to whom will best further their own interests. It appears that a lot of Hindi and Gujerati speaking Hindus vote for Modi whereas Muslims, by and large, do not. This is probably because Modi seems more concerned with specifically Hindu interests, more especially those in Hindi speaking areas. This seems perfectly rational to me. To unseat Modi we need candidates who appear more willing and able, not less so, to advance the interests of the people who voted him into power.

  • http://socioproctology.blogspot.co.uk/ windwheel

    I’m a stupid and lazy man but would happily write worthless articles if paid to do so. Still, you make a fair point.
    What is Jha’s argument?
    In his own words- ‘Three almost-simultaneous developments, each of which would normally have dented the government’s image in only minor ways, show how Modi’s image is beginning to lose its shine.’
    What is Jha saying? It is that 3 things which don’t matter much, do matter quite a lot because they coincide. As a result, the RSS has ordered Modi to do a Cabinet reshuffle because ‘his image is losing its shine’.
    The problem with this argument is that Indians believe Doklam was a victory, not a defeat, because there was no ’62 type invasion. Incidentally, American and other independent Security Analysts think India ‘won’. Modi’s image has been burnished as a result.
    Similarly Demonetisation appears to have worked in favour of Modi. What ever the opinion of Economists, the voters have spoken. Modi’s image has improved.
    Finally, voters don’t know about GDP figures. They only know that Modi is telling them that things are getting better and the Opposition has failed to make the opposite case.

    What is the true explanation for the reshuffle? It isn’t that Modi’s image is tarnished. It is that India faces an existential economic crisis more particularly on the Agricultural side. Too many ministries have been lethargic. Take Defence. Foreign observers, like John Elliot, have been complaining for years that it is dragging its feet. ‘Make in India’ can’t get off the ground if this inertia continues.

    Modi has acted rationally and in the country’s interest. Why? Because voters will only return him to power if he does so. They don’t care what the Chinese Ministry says or what some Harvard or Cambridge economists say or what Martha Nussbaum or Amartya Sen or even Prem Shankar Jha says.

    Jha says the reshuffle is because the RSS is worried by the things he mentions. Is the man mad? Do you really think elderly men in khaki knickers know anything about Econometrics? The truth is simple and plain to see. India can’t afford bureaucratic inertia and buck-passing. The Rights based approach to Development failed miserably. Modi knows that India has to pick up the pace or else the bi-partisan consensus on things like Reservations will blow up in all our faces.

  • http://socioproctology.blogspot.co.uk/ windwheel

    I like the ‘Hahaha!’- are you by any chance a screen villain circa 1971?

    • Deshaabhimaani Damodardas Subo

      HA HA HA! no sir! i am not that great! but i do laugh, some times loud! i sometimes laugh when sad! irony does make one laugh! we have so much irony now in India in every field, it will be difficult not to laugh!

      for example, you obviously dislike everything the wire publishes, everyone the wire publishes and everything even slightly critical of shri shri MOdi ji, our beloved prime minister! yet you seem to be coming onto this dis likable place so often, and so long each day! is the irony not laughable!

      please you too do laugh sir! we all need to laugh. we are after all brothers born to different mothers, we are all Indians! we must love each other and laugh at each other, with each other! if not life will be miserable sir!

      • http://socioproctology.blogspot.co.uk/ windwheel

        Hasya is a good rasa which can include all the others, including Moksha, by rasabhasa so you should certainly laugh very loudly. However, rather than typing HA HA HA! you might consider distilling this all pervasive irony you see about you into a witty or pithy phrase. In this way you cause others to smile. Solluntavacanam- i.e. an ironical expression- though caused by bitterness yet creates a sweet impression.

        The Wire is a great compendium, constantly updated, of bhavabhasa- i.e. emotion expressed not being justified by the facts. Since the appropriate bhava is known, because the facts are ‘common knowledge’, no phenomenological thesis regarding alterity or verstehen is required, it must be the case that there is a canonical ashtavakra type solution such that no samskar is unsublatable. Thus, commenting on the comedy presented here, while producing hasya yet also instills moksha.

        Modi is quite a good communicator and administrator. So are many Gujeratis. What is puzzling is why a country with so many hundreds of millions has only one candidate for the top job who is able to plausibly say ‘I want the job because I’ll be good at it.’

        Reading the Wire on a daily basis reveals not the answer at first in a contingent, but then in a necessary form. Thus, it is a sadhana.

  • http://socioproctology.blogspot.co.uk/ windwheel

    My disqus profile links to my blog. I want Journalists and Public intellectuals to shake off their lethargy do fact based research and keep the administration on its toes. It is easy to flog a dead horse. It is a difficult, but worthwhile, to bring a wild horse under control so that it can discharge a useful function.

  • Deshaabhimaani Damodardas Subo

    dear shriman windwheel,

    you do enjoy baseless insinuations!

    you reconfirm your pleasure when you seemingly self deprecatingly say … “write worthless articles if paid to do so.” i am sure shri Jha or any other analyst worth a little salt deserves a little more fairness than you are willing to bestow!

    the wire is among the poorest. i do not know if the wire pays at all to it’s article contributors! if they pay, and if shri Jha is accepting, i do not think shri Jha can eat a good meal and a drink in a decent place with that! the wire appears to be run for a cause, a good cause, a cause whose flag is carried by few in the present day India, where death can be the simplest sentence by the accuser, prosecutor, witness, judge and the executioner all in one single avatar of a real Bhakth

    i will not be surprised if people connected with the wire, or contributors like shri Jha are put on the list and executed like the other helpless upright and righteous men and women have been, the latest having been killed in the last few days!

    the dance of death at the hands of neo Nazi’s and neo fascists is picking up speed!

    it is so sad that in such sordid times you wish to call shri Jha a paid writer, paid for writing a particular view of the payer! who do you think could be paying shri Jha?

    before i could write further, i made a humble search to know more about him! a simple reading of the page about him on wikipedia made me feel that his credentials are impeccable. i do not think that men like you or me can ever match his!

    be that as it may! let us examine your wonderful prose of political and moral insinuation against shri Jha, without any element of insinuation, and strictly on the merits of your learned propositions.

    “The problem with this argument is that Indians believe Doklam was a victory, not a defeat, because there was no ’62 type invasion.”

    it would be a very dangerous wish to have expected china to go to war with india on doklam!

    china of late 50’s and early 60’s was different from the sophisticated international player china of today is!

    i think china has about 50 billion us$ surplus trade with India!

    china got lucky with our over smart generals or defence ministry babus, or both, making the grave mistake of disowning that mount gipmochi mentioned in the 1890 UK-China boundary convention on Sikkim-Tibet boundary as the starting point/tri-junction, and raising a convoluted argument that batang law is that point because that is the highest or higher than gipmochi!

    in international law, any reference to a name or place is final as long as it is existing, identifiable and ascertainable! convolutions are not allowed. they are possible only in Indian elections!

    having seized up on our blunder, china went to town tom toming our disrespect to an agreed boundary convention, our arguments of convolution, and why India must go back to the line it crossed!

    no one can find china guilty of a wrong for not launching a war on India, because India delayed the withdrawal!

    the longer we delayed, the more china took advantage of our mistake issuing statement after statement, videos, articles, photographs showing India crossing the Sikkim Tibet boundary! irrespective of the status of dispute between china and Bhutan about doklam, the crossing of Sikkim Tibet boundary line by India troops was blasphemous in international relations!

    the worst we could have done was to cross India-Bhutan boundary, enter Bhutan, and then enter the disputed area accompanied by the men of Royal Bhutanese Army. our over smart folks did not know this little of basic international boundary protocol!

    now everything in this episode is a matter of record, not refutable by either party! yet we had our poor ignorant spokes person speaking some cricket gibberish like it matters not whether the batsman went first or the ball came first! it matters a lot when signed boundary conventions between great nations are in question!

    “Incidentally, American and other independent Security Analysts think India ‘won’. Modi’s image has been burnished as a result. ”

    it is the job of American folks inside and outside the government to push India and china into every possible collusion without actually leading to a nuclear war! they as do Germans, french, Italian, Britain and Sweden want India to be scared of it’s neighbours and keep importing arms from them! and our politicians, political parties and babus and generals are all happy about the imports, because there is no other thing that greases them as much as arms imports do!

    if your love for some in politics makes you believe that there was corruption only in the arms imported by congress and the great patriots of bjp or all pathivratha, it is my misfortune! there are simply no arms imports into any country in the world without bribes!

    why are we bothered about them, such americans?

    “Similarly Demonetization appears to have worked in favour of Modi. What ever the opinion of Economists, the voters have spoken. Modi’s image has improved.”

    it is sickening to note that shri Modi is your God, and India just needs to worship him irrespective of what damage he causes!

    we as a people and as a country want the progress and prosperity and well being of the people and economy! not of shri Modi’s political fortunes! it is retrograde thinking!

    the data cited by shri Jha shows that demonetization caused damage to the people and to the economy! period!

    that shri modi won elections despite demonetization, though a fact, is all together a different story!

    in many countries people have some time or the other voted for people believing them and voted them out when their aspirations were not realized!

    “Finally, voters don’t know about GDP figures. They only know that Modi is telling them that things are getting better and the Opposition has failed to make the opposite case.”

    true shri Modi is telling people things are getting better but things are not getting better and GDP is falling! people may not understand gdp, but falling GDP will affect people sooner than later!

    “What is the true explanation for the reshuffle? It isn’t that Modi’s image is tarnished. It is that India faces an existential economic crisis more particularly on the Agricultural side. Too many ministries have been lethargic. Take Defence. Foreign observers, like John Elliot, have been complaining for years that it is dragging its feet. ‘Make in India’ can’t get off the ground if this inertia continues.”

    windwheel bhai saheb, shri Modi is irrelevant!, if he can not do good for the country!

    his good has to show in action, not only bhaashan and more bhaashan!

    “Modi has acted rationally and in the country’s interest. Why? Because voters will only return him to power if he does so. They don’t care what the Chinese Ministry says or what some Harvard or Cambridge economists say or what Martha Nussbaum or Amartya Sen or even Prem Shankar Jha says.”

    what you say is not true sir! people vote believing some things! people can be mislead and are mislead. though it is now established that in india, sooner or later people do punish in elections when their belief is gone! we have to simply wait for that, allow shri Modi make his quota of mistakes, allow the suffering of the people and economy to reach the people in a way they can perceive their own and countries bankruptcy, and only then elections results will reflect shri Modi ji’s work!

    Gujarat was a story of propaganda more dominating than performance!

    when shri manmohan singh left, NPA’s of Indian banks were around 2.25 lakh crores! shri Modi ji came to power in 2014 and now the NPA’s have risen to some 8 lakh crores and expected to touch 10 lakh crores before the term of shri Modi comes to an end!

    what a wonderful performance sir ji?

    and you will no doubt see progress and development in it!

    when our love is blind, how can we see even if our eyes are open?

    could German people see anything bad when a Pygmy of shri Adolf Hitler maharaj grew to become a gaint?

    india will never develop trying to run the abhorrent course of neo-fascism and neo-Nazism we see in play. India and Indians have to find their own path of development and progress shutting of these two dangerous traits under vigorous implementation now!

    a second term?

    possible!

    more ruin and deeper fall into chaos, violence, authoritarianism and some kind of brinkmanship over Kashmir or kerala also are things possible and plausible!

    “Jha says the reshuffle is because the RSS is worried by the things he mentions. Is the man mad?”

    baabuji windwheel sir, we do have some freedom of speech still left! you are in the category of more freedom of speech licensed! but is it really necessary to call shri Jha mad just because you hate his reasoning and logic!
    please do hate sir, but why call him mad? how can mad man man be hated sir?
    he or anyone who can publish in the wire, even if it be a comment like your’s or mine, can not be mad! one could be imbalanced, obsessed, one sided and so on, may be like me or may be like you!
    but he can not be mad, and i beg you do not call him or anyone else mad here, so that you can be respected more! sir, it is so easy to abuse! and so difficult to discuss!

    “Do you really think elderly men in khaki knickers know anything about Econometrics?”

    it matters not what the gentlemen of jhandewallen know or do not know!

    what matters is they have been struggling to put humble MUKHOTA s like shri Modi ji in places like he has come to occupy!

    hook or crook, they succeeded!

    they succeeded so much that they could have a painting of the killer mastermind of that poor old frail man called shri MOHANDAS KARAMCHAND GANDHI, SHRI “VEER” SAVARKAR PUT NEXT OR NEAR TO HIM!
    nothing succeeds like success!

    kindly read the pleading letters of shri “veer” VINAYAK DAMODAR SAVARKAR addressed to the government of the queen!

    god must be having a reason to set upon us Indian people great men like shri Modi and shri Windwheel!

    we will wait to see his leela!

    AMEN

    • http://socioproctology.blogspot.co.uk/ windwheel

      I said I’d be happy to write nonsense if I was paid. I didn’t say Jha was paid. Your insinuation is baseless.
      I said Indians think Modi won Doklam. You think Indians ought not to think Modi won Doklam. Mine is an empirical proposition. Yours is not.
      Similarly, the Global I.R community thinks Modi won Doklam and that Xi is being conciliatory. This is an empirical proposition.
      I believe Indian voters- like all voters- have ‘fast and frugal heuristic rationality’ which is Hannan consistent because diversity falls within the limits stipulated by Chichilnisky & thus Condorcet Jury theorem is satisfied.

      Apparently you want me to read some letter penned by Savarkar to ‘the government of the queen’. He was in short pants when Queen Victoria died and India had become independent by the time Queen Elizabeth came to throne. Perhaps you are hinting that George V was a homosexual ‘queen’. Nothing wrong in that if both parties are consenting adults. Still, I must regretfully decline your request to read this letter which has got you so excited. What is sauce for the goose is not sauce for the gander. Mind it kindly. Jai Hind!

      PS. why you are wanting to see Modi’s leela so much? It may be a bit bigger or smaller than average but it is not made of gold and studded with diamonds. I suggest you take cold shower and develop some healthier interests.

  • Deshaabhimaani Damodardas Subo

    ha ha ha! but trolls also began coming here because they began to feel the punch!
    may god bless the trolls and bhakths!

  • Deshaabhimaani Damodardas Subo

    yes sir, it is difficult to vote known scoundrels! but it is so easy to vote for unknown scoundrels, agents of crony capitalists, killers whose guilt could be destroyed!
    think of a simple thing sir! NPA’s of Indian banks in 2014 by which time shri raghuram rajan was putting strict measures in place. now they have “progressed and developed to 8 lakh crores almost, and will touch 10 lakh crores before april 2019!

    one or two thousand people have been murdered, burnt and raped in broad day light mostly, in front of the eyes of the police men holding guns but not using them to protect law and order. would you care to check how many killings have been recorded in FIR S, how many people were prosecuted, how many people were convicted?
    if an administrator can do this little thing, he is no administrator.
    politics, communalism, appeasement etc all are secondary!
    do we have honest leaders and administrators who stick to the oath they taken to protect the constitution!
    if those who take the oath are people who do everything they can to breach that oath, then what kind of a people they are?
    of course you have a right to support such people! love in life and politics has always been blind!
    did not the great German people love their great leader shri shri Adolf Hitler maharaj and vote him, praise him and die by him?
    did not the great Italian people do the same thing for shri shri mahashri Benito Mussolini guruji?
    are you aware the largest cultural organization in the world is in india? do you know that organisation is run on copied model of the Mussolini gurujis fascist organizations, having obtained all the details through a great Indian man that went to the round table conference in London, and from there travelled to Italy, met shri Mussolini guruji, collected all the details and tutored them to his Indian friends that founded that greatest cultural organization!
    please do some research about that great man and his friends! his name :Balakrishna Shivram Moonje (B. S. Moonje, also B. S. Munje, 12 December 1872 – 3 March 1948)

  • alok asthana

    A guy who can’t keep his old mother and his legally wedded wife with him is not even a good hindu, let alone a karamyogi. Don’t get mislead by his troll army. Read a confessional book called ‘ I am a troll’ by Swati Chaturvedi.

  • http://socioproctology.blogspot.co.uk/ windwheel

    In Economics, Expectations create Reality. Actions are Strategic. Furthermore, there is a Newcombe type problem. That is why it is important that senior Economists say ‘Demonetization is bad’. If they say ‘It is good’, the market will expect it to recur. But in that case it would be futile.

    Military Strategy too is Game Theoretic. Costly signals create a separating equilibrium. It is better to send the costly signal sooner rather than later and to do so at a forward position. Modi sent that signal. It kept India’s options open. That is why I.R scholars think Modi ‘won’ this round.

    India faces an existential crisis. The agricultural sector is at the end of its tether. I think Modi will use cash transfers to give the vulnerable a soft landing thus saving the bipartisan consensus on Reservations.

    Eulogising or demonising an Indian politician in the English language has no effect at all even on Anglophone Indians. Why? We know it is all just pretence and hypocrisy. We will write ten thousand words on ending Caste discrimination and then bitterly berate our daughter if she wants to marry ‘an unsuitable boy’. Dominant caste people will go further. They may lock her up or even have her killed.

    I expect Modi to be re-elected not because he has worked any miracle but because the Opposition is even more useless. They don’t have a P.M candidate or a manifesto or even any sort of rational discourse as to how they can coordinate their actions.